This reflects the agency's expectation that the Brazilian state oil company's operational and financial discipline will continue to support cash generation, which will help sustain its current capital structure.
Moody's decided to maintain Petrobras' credit rating at 'Ba2' with a stable outlook, based on the company's strong credit metrics for its rating category and its positive track record of both, operating and financial results.
For its part, the stable outlook reflects Moody's view that Petrobras' credit profile will remain virtually unchanged over the next 12 to 18 months.
The rating also reflects Moody's expectation that Petrobras' operational and financial discipline will continue to support cash generation, which will help sustain its current capital structure.
In contrast, Petrobras' rating is limited by the company's exposure to potential policy changes and the risk of government influence on the company's business decisions.
According to the agency, there is a low probability that the company will default as a result of sovereign credit difficulties given Petrobras' strong financial metrics and capital structure.
The policy changes could pose a greater credit risk for Petrobras if the government begins to use the national oil company to cover fiscal deficits and control fuel prices to curb inflation.
The company's execution of its asset sale program, liability management and its business strategy over recent years has allowed it to significantly reduce debt levels and improve its credit indicators, leaving Petrobras at a very comfortable position to withstand the current volatility.
Petrobras' strong credit and liquidity indicators also support its rating.
Likewise, Moody's continues to assume moderate dependence on the default between Petrobras and the government. An upgrade to Petrobras' Ba1 rating is unlikely in the next 12 to 18 months because Moody's expects the company's credit metrics to remain relatively stable.
However, the solvency score could improve if credit metrics are at least stable and there is evidence of significantly lower exposure to adverse government influence.
On the contrary, Petrobras' rating could be downgraded if its operating performance deteriorates or if there are external factors that increase liquidity risk or debt leverage from current levels on a sustained basis, among others.