The EMAE result for December of the previous year "is due in part to the low comparison base offered by December 2023," said the consulting firm Orlando Ferreres & Asociados in one of its reports.
Argentina's Monthly Estimator of Economic Activity (EMAE) is expected to have seen a 3.5% year-on-year improvement in December 2024, after recording an almost neutral variation in November, according to the median of a Reuters Agency survey.
According to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC), with the minimum year-on-year increase in the EMAE recorded in November (+0.1%), the South American nation managed to break a streak of five consecutive months of economic contraction.
The projections of 12 local analysts showed an average increase of 2.9% for the year-on-year measurement of the EMAE for the last month of 2024.
The EMAE result for December of the previous year "is due in part to the low comparison base offered by December 2023," said the consulting firm Orlando Ferreres & Asociados in one of its reports.
"Among the sectors, the improvement in trade, driven by the wholesale sector, and financial intermediation stands out. Among the sectors with difficulties, a lethargy continues to be observed in construction, which closes a terrible year," he added.
The wide range of estimates among the analysts surveyed ranged from a minimum increase of 0.3% to a maximum improvement of 4.6% for the comparison of the EMAE against the same period of the previous year.
"Although the reference month for comparison is low (December 2023), the most significant thing is that a much more homogeneous recovery is observed and not limited to specific sectors such as agriculture or energy," said Pablo Besmedrisnik, economist and director of VDC consultancy.
Looking ahead to what the EMAE of Latin America's third largest economy expects for 2025, economists project that the situation is encouraging.
"Looking at the year that has just begun, the outlook is good: wages are recovering, boosting private consumption, and the improved macroeconomic order will encourage greater opportunities for productive investment," Ferreres said.
According to its publication schedule, INDEC will release the official EMAE data for the last month of 2024 on Tuesday afternoon (19:00 GMT).
