Consensus of official and private entities points to growth of 4% this year, said the Peruvian Chamber of Construction (Capeco).
The construction sector would have experienced a growth of 3.8% in Peru in the first quarter of 2024, according to the preliminary estimate made by the Peruvian Chamber of Construction (Capeco).
According to the presentation of the latest Construction Economic Report (IEC 76), the expansion would have been driven by a significant increase in the progress of public works (16.2%). “And despite a slight contraction in cement consumption (0.1%),” explained Guido Valdivia, executive director of the union.
The spokesperson also explained that in February of this year, construction stopped being the productive activity with the best performance (as happened in January), being surpassed by mining and hydrocarbons (15.94%) and electricity, gas and water (8 .09%).
For its part, the national GDP presented an increase of 2.9% in the second month of the year, its best performance since June 2022, the month in which it expanded 3.4%.
The expectations of the construction businessmen interviewed for this IEC, comments Valdivia, reflect a moderate optimism.
They project an increase of 3.9% in their level of operations at the end of 2024, just one tenth less than the forecast recorded in the February measurement, he noted.
Within the three segments of the sector, infrastructure builders are those who expect a more favorable performance at the end of this year (4.8%), while real estate developers predict a relatively lower growth (3.1%) of their operations, he said.
Although, for the Capeco executive, if this projection for construction companies is fulfilled, the drastic 7.9% contraction that affected the sector in 2023 would not be completely reversed, it should be noted that the growth rate expected by businessmen for Its operations at the end of 2024 are higher than those estimated for construction GDP by the Central Reserve Bank (3.2%) and independent economic consultants (between 0% and 4%, averaging 2.6%).
For the issuing institute and also for the consulting firms, this performance will depend more on public investment (3.9%, on average of six measurements collected) than on private investment (1.9% on average).
On the public construction side, the execution of state investment budgets in the first quarter of 2024, according to the Friendly Consultation Module of the Ministry of Economy and Finance, reached a record amount (US$ 2,178 million, which exceeds execution in the same period of the previous year) and also the highest rate of efficiency in budget execution (12.7%).
The performance was positive at all three levels of government: it increased 62.6% in the regions, 49.7% in the municipalities and 14.3% in the central government.
Regarding the investment carried out by type of work, there was an increase in investment in the construction of non-residential buildings by 60.1%, in risk prevention works (80.7%), in road infrastructure (10.8%). %) and in basic services (18.5%).
