The agency noted that the credit rating is limited by high fiscal deficits and uncertain prospects for consolidation needed to stabilise the debt-to-GDP ratio, as well as a high interest burden and a high dependence on raw materials.

Fitch Ratings has maintained Colombia's credit rating at 'BB+' with a stable outlook, citing the country's track record of "macroeconomic and financial stability," supported by an independent central bank and inflation targeting regime and a freely floating currency.

However, the agency noted that the credit rating is limited by high fiscal deficits and uncertain prospects for consolidation needed to stabilise the debt-to-GDP ratio, as well as a high interest burden and a high dependence on raw materials.

While Fitch expects a rebound in revenues given the likely economic recovery in the coming year, rising spending pressures and budget rigidities will make it difficult to achieve further deficit reduction beyond 2026 without implementing tax reforms.

In addition, the agency noted that uncertainties about trend growth persist due to declining investment, which Fitch believes will remain below historical levels throughout the forecast period. Low productivity growth contributes to these uncertainties.

A deterioration in investment and growth prospects or a worsening of the public debt-to-GDP ratio could lead to a downgrade of the credit rating.

On the contrary, the consolidation of sustained economic growth above Colombia's historical averages, accompanied by broader macro-financial stability, would lead to an improvement in the rating.