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Goodbye to recession?: Argentina's economic activity rises 2.3% year-on-year after six months of declines
Thursday, July 18, 2024 - 14:46
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According to the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC), the Agriculture, livestock, hunting and forestry sector had the greatest positive impact on this result recorded in May, followed by Mining and quarrying, driven by the increase in production. in Vaca Muerta.

In May, the monthly estimator of economic activity in Argentina (EMAE) grew 2.3% year-on-year in May and 1.3% compared to April, as reported this Thursday by the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC). With this figure, the South American country cut six consecutive months of retraction.

Compared to the same month in 2023, six sectors of activity registered increases in May, among which Agriculture, livestock, hunting and forestry (+103.3%) and Electricity, gas and water (+11.0%) stand out.

The EMAE is considered a key indicator since it anticipates the trajectory of GDP.

According to INDEC, the Agriculture, livestock, hunting and forestry sector was, in turn, the one with the greatest positive impact on the interannual variation of the EMAE, followed by Mining and quarrying (+7.6%), driven by the increase in production in Vaca Muerta.

"For their part, nine sectors of activity registered falls in the year-on-year comparison, among which Construction (-22.1%) and Manufacturing Industry (-14.2%) stand out. Along with Wholesale, retail and repair trade (- 11.41%) subtract 4.6 percentage points from the interannual growth of the EMAE," says the INDEC in its report.

Despite the positive result, according to INDEC figures, the Argentine economy accumulates a decline of 2.9% so far this year compared to the same period in 2023.

Likewise, the different industries in Argentina have been operating in an economy with an inflation of 276.4% year-on-year, (although on the way to deceleration), while consumption continued to decline in the scenario of strong adjustment carried out by the Government of Javier Milei.

Meanwhile, just two days ago, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in the July update of the Global Outlook Report (WEO), warned that the Argentine economy will fall more than expected this year. Specifically, the multilateral organization projects a drop in Argentine GDP of 3.5%, seven tenths more than the April projection. However, it projects a rebound of 5% in 2025.

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