For the United States and the rise of copper. Non-traditional sectors such as agriculture, fishing and textiles and clothing would advance.
Peruvian exports would total US$ 15,550 million, which would show a growth of 2% in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, projected the Lima Chamber of Commerce (CCL).
This is driven by the favorable economic performance of the United States, the main destination for non-traditional Peruvian exports, as well as the increase in the prices of key minerals such as copper, he explained.
For the first case, the United States is expected to register growth of 1.5% in 2024, which represents an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared to the last quarter of 2023.
“This recovery in real GDP would be explained by the favorable behavior of the US economy in 2023, which registered a progressive decrease in inflation, low unemployment and increased productivity. All of this contributes, it is estimated, to greater activity in its foreign trade,” said the head of the Foreign Trade Research and Development Institute of the CCL, Óscar Quiñones.
Regarding the price of copper, despite the fact that China's economic growth would be slowed in 2024 by the real estate crisis, Quiñones explained that it would be appreciated all year round due to Chinese investment in Asia-Pacific countries, such as Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia. .
Traditional and non-traditional sector
Precisely, according to the business union, the traditional sector in the first quarter would register a growth of 1.9% with an export value of US$ 10,889 million, which would be explained by an increase in mining shipments (4%) that would total US$ 8.9 million due to the projection of the price of copper that would continue to rise.
For the non-traditional sector, the CCL estimated an export value of US$ 4,661 million, which would represent an advance of 1.54% compared to the same period of the previous year, driven by the agricultural, textile and clothing, and fishing subsectors.
In the case of traditional agriculture, a growth of 5% is projected, supported by the strength of the US economy, the main market for this sector. Meanwhile, for textiles and clothing, a growth of 3% is estimated, reflecting sustained demand in international markets.
“In non-traditional fishing we project a growth of 5%, driven by external demand and favorable market conditions,” explained Óscar Quiñones.
Optimistic outlook
The foreign trade specialist considered that these projections envision an optimistic outlook for Peruvian exports in the first quarter of 2024, amid a global context of economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions.
