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Moody's changes Peru's economic outlook from negative to stable
Sunday, September 22, 2024 - 19:07
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The international agency also ratified Peru's sovereign rating at "Baa1".

The international agency Moody's Investors Service has revised upward the outlook for Peru's long-term debt ratings in foreign and local currency, moving from "negative" to "stable." The agency also ratified the sovereign debt rating at "Baa1."

According to Moody's, the improved outlook is due to the implementation of political reforms and a more stable political environment, contributing to restoring institutional stability. Among the most relevant measures is the return to bicameral Congress and the reelection of congressmen, initiatives that seek to strengthen governability, thus reducing the political uncertainty that has affected the country in recent years.

Additionally, Moody's highlights that the Peruvian economy has begun to overcome a severe shock to confidence, driven by improved political conditions. During the period between April 2021 and February 2024, business confidence was considerably affected by political uncertainty. However, the country has managed to overcome this adverse context, which is reflected in the recent economic recovery. In the first half of 2024, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.5%, with an acceleration of 3.6% in the second quarter.

Moody's has stressed that the ratification of the "Baa1" rating is supported by Peru's high fiscal strength, ample buffers to cope with shocks and solid capacity to guarantee macroeconomic stability, highlighting the low level of public debt and the large fiscal reserves equivalent to 10% of GDP.

Going forward, Moody's notes that Peru can improve its credit rating if there is a more stable political environment that supports institutional cohesion and results in the adoption of sustainable reforms that boost growth and strengthen fiscal performance, leading to a faster reduction in debt indicators. Likewise, strengthening governance, especially in relation to political institutions, corruption and the informal economy, would improve the country's creditworthiness.

The Minister of Economy and Finance, José Arista, stressed that “the improvement in the outlook for the credit rating is a clear recognition of the firm commitment of the Government of Peru to economic stability, fiscal responsibility and the strengthening of our democratic institutions. This progress in improving political conditions is the result of the coordinated work between the Executive and the Legislative branches, whose purpose is to consolidate governability that translates into an improvement in the quality of life of all Peruvians.”

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