The good prices of minerals and commodities , such as cocoa and coffee, would serve as a boost for the mining and agro-export sectors.

The price of the dollar would remain stable during 2024, mainly motivated by a good performance in foreign trade and mining exports, predicted the former Minister of Economy and Finance, Ismael Benavides.

He explained that the good prices of minerals and commodities , such as cocoa and coffee, will serve as a boost for the mining and agro-export sectors.

He projected a trade surplus that will prevent the dollar from "skyrocketing."

The economist estimated that the BCR will be cautious when reducing its reference interest rate, currently at 5.75%, with a tendency to reach 4.5% towards the end of the year or the beginning of 2025.

WITHDRAWAL OF AFP AND CTS

The economist said that the BCR rate is not the only factor that impacts bank credit.

“The Congress of the Republic approved a seventh withdrawal of AFP funds, with an impact of around 21,000 million soles less for the pension system, as well as an additional 2,500 million for the withdrawal of the CTS,” he noted.

Benavides explained that, in the short term, this injection affects the yield of sovereign bonds, and the value of the pension fund is also lost.

“In contrast, banks, since they do not have long-term resources, cover themselves with higher short-term interest rates, which directly affects the consumption capacity of citizens,” he noted.

Finally, the expert called on the business sector to take a more proactive stance against measures that are harmful to the economy, driven by populism.