According to the Monthly Estimator of Economic Activity (EMAE), this is a significant slowdown in relation to the variation of the previous month (-8.4%).
The Monthly Estimator of Economic Activity (EMAE) of Argentina would have recorded a decline of 4.0% year-on-year in April, a significant slowdown in relation to the variation of the previous month (-8.4%), according to the median of a survey from Reuters .
The South American country, if the fall in the fourth month of the year is confirmed, has not recorded positive data in the EMAE since October 2023, when it recorded an increase of 1.0% year-on-year, according to official data.
The projections among 17 local analysts also showed the same percentage for the EMAE average for the fourth month of 2024.
"The year-on-year fall showed a significant slowdown, affected by the agricultural context, which begins to compare the data from the second quarter with those from the worst moment of the drought, reflecting very high growth rates," said consulting firm Orlando Ferreres & Asociados.
"The effect of the low comparison base also affected related sectors, such as wholesale trade and transportation. The other dynamic sector of the economy is mining and quarries, driven by oil and gas production," added Ferreres.
Estimates among the analysts surveyed ranged between a maximum advance of 0.5% and a maximum contraction of 6.9% for economic activity in April.
Looking ahead to the coming months, specialists estimate that the economy will maintain cuts in its decline and that it will slowly enter a path of recovery.
Putting aside "seasonal issues or those that are more related to a very low 2023 statistical comparison base, everything indicates that we are entering a period of time in which the economy slows down its speed of decline and is heading towards a recovery moderate," said Pablo Besmedrisnik, economist and director of the consulting firm Invenómica.
The National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC), according to its publication calendar, will release the official EMAE data for April on Friday afternoon (1900 GMT).
