The entity points out that business confidence is gained with greater political stability and generating a better business climate.
The Peruvian economy would register growth of around 3% during the second half of this year, with which the gross domestic product (GDP) of Peru would close all of 2024 with an expansion of 2.9%, said BBVA Research.
“Going forward, in the second semester, we expect that growth will be around 3%, and with that we would reach our forecast for the current year, which is 2.9%,” said the chief economist for Peru at BBVA Research, Hugo Perea. , to the Andina Agency.
He maintained that for the second half of this year, BBVA Research expects an improvement in business confidence, which is already at its highest levels in the last three years, and that there is an increasingly favorable environment for spending by companies. families and companies.
“We have to consolidate business confidence so that there is more investment or some projects are accelerated, and this confidence is gained with greater political stability and generating a better climate for business,” he said.
“Large projects in mining and infrastructure also have to be managed so that they finally come to fruition. We have seen positive that the restart of Tía María (Arequipa) is finally announced, although this will still be for the final part of the year if it actually materializes, which could give an additional boost to the economy," he added.
Hugo Perea considered that the greater availability of resources associated with the new withdrawal of the AFP and Compensation for Time of Service (CTS) will also have some positive impact on consumption and the economy.
“That will also have some impact on consumption, our forecast incorporates that effect. The withdrawal proposal only leads to a temporary boost, but in the future it is generating a big problem because it will leave millions of people without pension coverage,” he noted.
Standardization
The chief economist for Peru at BBVA Research said that the growth of national GDP in April (5.28%) and May (5.04%) of this year was temporary, due to the “rebound effect” compared to the figures for the same months of 2023. and for the normalization of the climate that favored certain activities such as fishing and agriculture.
“The acceleration of growth rates in April and May, above 5%, is basically explained by the normalization of some activities affected by climate anomalies, in particular fishing and the impact of anchovy extraction,” held.
“The economy is growing, rebounding and recovering its usual level. The normalization of the climate has a positive impact, as we are already seeing in fishing, also in textiles and the agricultural sector,” he added.
