In addition to lower inflation, the entity predicts that national production will grow 3% in 2024.
Banco de Crédito del Perú (BCP) conducted a new evaluation of the direction of the Peruvian economy today, maintaining its growth projection for the Peruvian economy at around 3% for this year, said Carlos Prieto, manager of the economic studies area of the financial institution.
He explained that the factors that explain the rebound of the economy are, on the one hand, the absence of supply shocks in 2023 (El Niño, protests, among others)
Other factors include favourable export prices, lower inflation that benefits household purchasing power and counter-cyclical economic policies (lower reference rate and higher public investment by the Government).
Forecast for 2025
Regarding the gross domestic product (GDP) for 2025, the entity projected a growth of 2.8%.
“The cyclical recovery will extend into next year due to favorable external winds derived from lower external rates and the positive effect of terms of trade at historic peaks, the materialization of the effects of a less restrictive monetary policy, and more dynamic consumer credit as default metrics improve in the financial system,” explained Prieto.
Despite this, a slowdown will be observed in 2025 because 2024 will benefit from statistical effects in the face of shocks in 2023.
At the same time, this year the seventh withdrawal from AFPs took place while the fiscal stimulus began to be withdrawn while the fiscal consolidation process began.
In this regard, Prieto believes it is important to highlight that the first half of 2025 would be more dynamic than the second half of that year as the general election environment in April 2026 approaches.
The BCP economist added that "possible upward forecasts derive from a faster acceleration of private investment if there is a successful unblocking of projects
In addition, the prices of key commodities are accelerating again due to good fundamentals and new unidentified projects are expected in the area of influence of the port of Chancay.
Inflation and Reference Rate
Regarding annual inflation, the Quarterly Macroeconomic and Market Report indicates that this will accelerate in the coming months given the low or negative monthly records in September, October and November of last year.
"Despite this, inflation is still expected to close 2024 at around 2.5%," said the manager of the BCP's economic studies area.
He also estimated that the reference rate at the end of 2024 will be 5%.
"Our view considers that the real policy rate remains high in a context of a negative output gap and inflation indicators within the target range, and the expectation that the FED will soon begin to cut its rate, limiting the pressures for the rate differential (BCR-FED) to temporarily go beyond 25 basis points," said Carlos Prieto.
Regarding the exchange rate, he explained that the BCP maintains its projection of 3.75 soles for the end of 2024.
