The metal has long been used in the construction, transportation and energy sectors for its durability, malleability and conductivity. But in recent years, it has also been used in the manufacture of electric vehicles, green energy plants and data centers. Miners are predicting a boom in the metal.
Australian miner BHP forecasts the world will consume 1 million more metric tons of copper each year on average through 2035 due to the adoption of copper-intensive technologies, double the annual volume growth over the past 15 years.
Copper has long been used in the construction, transportation and energy sectors for its durability, malleability and conductivity. In recent years, it has also been used in the manufacture of electric vehicles, green energy plants and data centers.
BHP noted in a report released Monday that global copper demand has grown at a compound annual rate of 3.1% over the past 75 years. But this growth rate has slowed to just 1.9% over the past 15 years through 2021, it said.
"However, looking ahead to 2035, we expect this growth rate to pick up again to 2.6% per year," the report said.
Total copper demand in 2023 was 31 million tonnes, including 25 million tonnes of copper cathode and 6 million tonnes of copper scrap, according to BHP, which owns and operates the world's largest copper mine, Escondida, in Chile.
"Looking ahead to 2050, we see a 70% increase in global copper demand, up to 50 million tonnes per year, driven by copper's role in existing and emerging technologies, and the world's decarbonisation aspirations," said BHP Chief Commercial Officer Rag Udd.
The mining giant expects the energy transition sector to account for 23% of copper demand in 2050, up from 7% today, according to the report.
The digital sector, which encompasses data centres, 5G, artificial intelligence, the internet of things and blockchain, will account for 6% of copper demand in 2050, up from 1% today, BHP forecast.
China's demand will continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace, because its per capita copper consumption is only half that of developed countries. India will also see growth.
Meanwhile, copper mining production growth is limited by high costs and depletion of ore grade.
"We estimate that average copper mine grades have declined by around 40% since 1991. We expect that between one-third and one-half of global copper supply will face grade reduction and ageing issues over the next decade," BHP added.
The total bill for all expansion investments between 2025 and 2034 is forecast to be around $250 billion, a significant increase from the previous 10 years, when total spending on copper projects was about $150 billion, according to BHP.
