Russia is the fourth best non-oil destination for Ecuador's exports. From January to August, that market represented US$ 583 million for the country.
The escalation of the war between Russia and Ukraine, which has kept the world on alert due to the use of Western missiles by Ukraine and Russian threats to use nuclear weapons, also has the Ecuadorian export sector on edge due to the impact this could have on its fourth best non-oil and non-mining destination, according to the latest official foreign trade figures.
According to Felipe Ribadeneira, president of the Ecuadorian Federation of Exporters (Fedexpor), the current tension in that region has not yet been reflected in Ecuadorian exports, but he confirmed the concern of the local export sector, which remains expectant of the development and evolution of the conflict.
“Let’s hope this doesn’t happen. The Trump administration —US president-elect— has already mentioned that it wants to find a solution for peace. Let’s hope that happens, because any escalation of a war with a market, which is the fourth destination for exports, can be a problem,” said Ribadeneira.
According to figures from the Ministry of Production, Foreign Trade, Investments and Fisheries, from January to August, Ecuador exported US$ 583 million in non-oil and non-mining products to the Russian market, -4% compared to the same period in 2023, when Ecuadorian exports generated US$ 608 million.
The top three destinations for local exports are the European Union (US$3.769 billion), China (US$3.453 billion) and the United States (US$3.285 billion).
Returning to Russia, the main Ecuadorian products in that market are bananas, which from January to August earned US$ 430 million, 15% less compared to fruit exports in the same period in 2023. This reduction is precisely attributed by the banana export sector to the armed conflict.
Shrimp follows with US$101 million, cocoa with US$29 million and other products with US$23 million.
Richard Salazar, executive director of the Association for the Marketing and Exportation of Bananas of Ecuador (Acorbanec), said that the sector is “quite concerned,” although he agreed with Ribadeneira in pointing out that there has not yet been an impact on banana exports, but he did not rule out that there may be repercussions in the future.
"In politics, anything is possible. I hope not, but the truth is that there is likely to be some kind of reaction," the leader said.
This reaction could be similar to that already suffered by the banana sector in February 2022, when the conflict began and exports were paralyzed due to the closure of ports and trade routes. In the first three weeks of the conflict alone, the sector was impacted by around US$ 70 million.
Salazar now estimates that the impact of a possible closure of the Russian market could be US$20 million per week, which is equivalent to 1.5 million boxes, almost 20% of all Ecuadorian banana exports.
"We would have a comparison with when the conflict began, when we practically had a temporary closure of the market, which affected companies, and there is no destination at this time that can absorb 100% of those exports," said Salazar.
"ECUADOR MUST REMAIN NEUTRAL AND NOT TAKE POSITIONS IN THE CONFLICT"
For Alberto Acosta Burneo, editor of the publication Análisis Semanal, the situation could become complicated for Ecuador when the conflict becomes larger in scale and involves other countries, such as the European ones, which could end up forcing Ecuador to take positions in the conflict, which could generate trade retaliation.
"The government must be very careful to avoid being dragged into a larger conflict where it is forced to take a position; otherwise, there could be a commercial impact on the country that is absolutely negative," Acosta said.
According to the expert, this could have a significant cost for Ecuador's production, when at this moment exports are the most dynamic sector of the country, which has a very depressed economy: "Ecuador cannot afford to lose these exports."
Acosta recommended remaining as neutral as possible regarding the conflict.
OTHER FIGURES OF THE BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP WITH RUSSIA
From January to August, Ecuador imported US$90 million worth of products from Russia. Of these, 90% were fertilizers worth US$80 million, US$4 million worth of non-food animal products, and US$6 million worth of other products, such as liquid pumps, liquid elevators, wires, cables and other insulated conductors for electricity, pipes and pipe accessories, electric motors and generators, panels, cabinets and supports for electricity distribution, etc.
The non-oil balance between both nations shows a surplus for Ecuador of US$ 493 million.
