There are forecasts of rain in African producing countries, but in Ecuador it is noted that increases were due to speculation, now they are expected to stabilize.

International cocoa future prices reached a minimum of US$7,130 per ton yesterday, Monday, far from the more than US$12,000 that marked the highest peak in recent months when record prices were recorded.

A Bloomberg report cites rain forecasts that should improve in Ghana and Indonesia, and that Ivory Coast will also benefit from the wet weather, although more rain is still needed to end the drought affecting its crops.

In 2023 the price per ton was US$2,500 and rose to US$4,100, and during 2024 it continued to climb in these four months. By last April it was around US$10,000 and on the 19th it climbed to US$12,261. However, in May there are already declines to US$8,000 and US$7,000.

What happens in Ecuador

Those prices for the local cocoa sector were just “a mirage resulting from the speculation of the investment fund that actively participates in the cocoa market on the New York Stock Exchange. Cocoa and bitcoin have been two of the most volatile financial markets of the year. That has been desired by speculators who have entered to participate in this market, taking it to US$ 12,000, and they have sold those positions on paper and we have a dramatic drop of 50%, from US$ 12,000 to US$ 7,000."

This is indicated by the president of the National Association of Cocoa Exporters (Anecacao), Iván Ontaneda, who adds that the rains have nothing to do with this drop in the international price, “the shortage of cocoa in Africa continues to exist, it has not missing. Everything is purely speculative, which has made all of us in the chain concerned because these market oscillations do not allow us to establish strategies or projections in the short and medium term.”

Now he thinks that the market will seek to stabilize at levels of US$6,000 and US$7,000, which he believes are still excellent prices for the cocoa producer. “What we are waiting for is a stabilization that allows us to have greater clarity about the future.”