This was confirmed by the executive director of the Peruvian Chamber of Construction (Capeco), Guido Valdivia.
After a complicated 2023, the construction sector in Peru begins the year with expectant results. In January it grew 13.16% and in February it advanced 6.41%, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI). But in March it would have fallen 6.1%, according to estimates by the Peruvian Chamber of Construction (Capeco).
With this, in the first quarter of 2024 it would have accumulated an expansion of 3.8%.
To learn more about the performance of this activity and its prospects, we spoke with the executive director of the business union, Guido Valdivia, in the Económika Supplement of the Diario El Peruano.
-What are Capeco's forecasts for the construction sector this year?
There is a good scenario for the sector. Expectations for the sector consider the forecasts of the Central Reserve Bank (BCR), which estimate a growth of 7.8% for mining investment and the goal established by the Private Investment Promotion Agency (ProInversión) of awarding mining projects this year. Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) for US$ 8,000 million.
In addition, a recovery is observed in the development of non-social housing projects. In this case, a 20% growth would have been observed in the placement of mortgage loans.
This makes us predict that there are three factors, with a private investment component, that will contribute to the better performance of the construction sector for the current year.
Additionally, there is the dynamic of public investment, which last April reached an execution of US$ 1,024 million, that is, a growth of 7.27%.
Companies in the sector project that the construction sector will grow 3.9% this year
-In which regions would construction progress be concentrated?
The largest works of the PPP projects to be awarded are in Lima, among them are the Peripheral Road Ring, the Ancón Industrial Park. With these plans alone we are talking about more than US$4 billion in investments.
On the other hand, large projects such as Line 2 of the Lima Metro and the construction of the Chancay Multipurpose Port Terminal continue.
There is a concentration of large infrastructure projects in the Lima Region. However, when we talk about mining investment we are basically talking about the regions.
-Can we now talk about sustained growth in construction?
We should return to the growth rates we had before. For the national economy to grow 6%, the construction sector should advance at rates of up to double digits.
Our country has the conditions for this, first of all is the development of large projects to close social gaps, which would allow us to recover the dynamics that existed before the pandemic.
We must move towards this so as not to lose the competitiveness gained in 20 years and which was put on hold, first due to the pandemic and then due to the political crisis.
We have a real estate industry that could easily triple the current housing construction and reach 200,000 units a year, there is a non-residential market that has not yet been filled, in addition to a great demand for commercial premises, among others.
-Regarding housing projects, in which areas are the works concentrated?
Non-social housing is what is driving sales in the sector and is basically concentrated in Lima Moderna and Lima Top (Surco, Miraflores, San Isidro), which concentrates more than half of the housing supply in this segment.
The other 50% of the non-social housing supply is mainly in San Miguel, Jesús María.
-At the regional level, which are the most dynamic in the development of housing projects?
For the development of this type of projects, the Piura Region has stood out for a long time. They are followed by Ica and to a lesser extent Lambayeque. Dynamism is also observed in Junín and San Martín.
-What do you propose to address these challenges of the national housing sector?
The Ministry of Housing, Construction and Sanitation must strengthen its role as the governing body in housing and urban development.
This involves establishing mechanisms to enforce national policies, such as creating a High Level Technical Committee and granting it binding powers. Furthermore, it is crucial to establish incentives for municipalities to promote social housing and adhere to national policies.
Ultimately, strict requirements must be implemented in municipal investment programs to ensure that the construction of affordable housing is prioritized and the diversion of resources to non-priority projects is avoided.
-In relation to the construction of the Port of Chancay, do you consider that it will have a positive impact on the growth of construction in your area of influence?
Real estate development in that area necessarily involves the preparation of an urban development plan. An entity is necessary to manage the territorial development of the area.
The invasions must be stopped.
Public investment
On the public construction side, Capeco highlights that the execution of state investment budgets in the first quarter of the year, according to the MEF Friendly Consultation Module, reached a record amount of US$ 2,184.8 million, which exceeded 31.9% the execution registered in the same period last year.
Likewise, it highlights that this is the highest efficiency rate in budget execution, with 12.7%.
The performance was positive at all three levels of government: it increased 62.6% in the regions, 49.7% in the municipalities and 14.3% in the central government.
Regarding the investment carried out by type of work, it stands out that there was an increase in investment in the construction of non-residential buildings by 60.1%, in risk prevention works (80.7%), in road infrastructure (10 .8%) and basic services at 18.5%.
