The Banco de Crédito de Perú Quarterly Report also indicates that the national GDP is expected to grow 3.2% in 2025, and the effects of political uncertainty due to the electoral campaign will only become apparent in the months leading up to the following year's elections.
Banco de Crédito de Perú (BCP) presented its Quarterly Macroeconomic Report this Thursday, the 13th. This report highlighted how U.S. President Donald Trump's second term has brought unusual economic uncertainty due to his aggressive measures on trade, immigration, and public spending.
As a result, markets have been caught by surprise, reversing stock market gains and generating volatility in interest rates. But although Trump has raised tariffs on China by 20% and imposed 25% levies on steel and aluminum, Beijing's response has been muted, while other affected countries such as Canada and Mexico are considering retaliation. The report also anticipates possible stagflation in the short term, which would complicate the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy.
Regarding commodity prices , oil has fallen 6% so far in 2025 and 15% in January, due to lower demand expectations and higher supply. Crude oil is expected to close the year at US$77 per barrel, but with a downward trend. Meanwhile, copper and gold have risen approximately 10%, boosted by uncertainty and the weakening US dollar. Furthermore, the market fears that new US trade policies will affect the supply and demand of raw materials.
However, for Carlos Prieto, Manager of the Economic Studies Area at BCP, the unpredictable nature of Trump's decisions makes it difficult to make clear predictions.
“This is a developing story, so it's quite difficult to predict concrete figures. However, a consensus is emerging that tariffs would have a negative impact on US economic growth and, in fact, would lead to higher inflation, beyond a precise figure. The same would happen in economies like Mexico and Canada, which are heavily dependent on trade with Washington,” Prieto explained during the presentation of the report.
PROJECTIONS FOR PERU AND ITS NEIGHBORS
Analyzing the main Andean economies, the BCP study stated that Chile's pension system reform is boosting the country's market, although external and political risks persist. This contrasting situation explains the projected moderate growth of 2.4% in 2025, driven by mining and tourism. It is also noteworthy that Evelyn Matthei, presidential candidate of the center-right Independent Democratic Union, is leading the polls for the October elections, although with a downward trend.
Along similar lines, Colombia is facing the uncertainty of the pre-election year, limiting private investment and forecasting growth of 2.3%. Factors behind this figure include increased private consumption and regional investment, although fixed investment remains below pre-pandemic levels. The fiscal deficit remains alarming and is expected to close the year at 6.3% of GDP, well above the target of Gustavo Petro's administration.
On the other hand, the BCP Report revised its GDP growth projection for Peru from 2.8% to 3.2%, due to a better close to 2024 and increased private investment. The country achieved improved figures due to favorable terms of trade and controlled inflation: it is projected to reach 2.3% annually by the end of the year.
TARIFFS ON AGRO-EXPORTS?
Regarding the possibility that the Trump administration will impose tariffs on global agricultural exports in April, Prieto stated that the effects on Peru depend on the scope of the measure. It is clear that if the United States imposes tariffs on Mexican avocado imports, the Peruvian market would benefit. But if Trump follows through on his initial promise of global tariffs, both markets would be severely affected.
“That price increase from US$10 to US$12, for example, would mean inflation and lower demand from North American consumers, both for Mexican and Peruvian avocados. It would be a detrimental measure for everyone, because in the United States, probably more than 50% of the avocados consumed by its citizens are not produced there. So the impact for Peru would be lower demand for its agricultural exports,” Prieto told AméricaEconomía .
The economist further stated that the Andean country is currently in the intermediate phase of an economic cycle: it has overcome the 2023 recession and the subsequent economic rebound. In the current phase, economic activity is growing at a more moderate pace, while inventories and sales are reaching equilibrium levels. Prieto points out that historically these phases last two years on average and are only interrupted by external shocks or serious natural disasters.
That said, while the 2026 presidential elections generate uncertainty due to political fragmentation, everything indicates that their effects on the economy will be felt much later. “Historical figures tell us that the greatest economic deterioration does not occur in the pre-election year, but rather in the months closest to the election. This will obviously depend on the evolution of the polls,” Prieto added.
