If the expectations of the Banxico survey are confirmed, inflation this year will average 4.14%; The GDP will complete a growth of 2.39% this year.
Expectations regarding Mexican inflation show that private sector specialists do not believe that the specific objective of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) will be achieved even in 2026.
According to the survey carried out by Banxico, among 41 economic analysis and consulting groups from the national and foreign private sector, the Mexican market anticipates that at the end of 2024, the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) will register a variation of 4. 14%. This is the highest forecast collected in 11 months, incorporating a third monthly upward correction.
The specialists consulted expect a fluctuation of 3.70% in the expected inflation for next year, from the 3.73% expected in January. And by 2026, they anticipate that it will be at 3.67%, thus registering a second consecutive month of upward corrections.
Inflation expectations for 2024, 2025 and even 2026 are above the specific goal of 3%, although for the years 2025 and 2026, they predict that it would already be within the permissible range of +/-1%.
Analysts from Franklin Templeton, Banco Base and Finamex explain that since the Bank of Mexico determined that the long-term inflation objective was 3%, in 2002, the specific objective has been touched on very few occasions.
It regularly fluctuates around 4.3%, and right now, having reached this variation, the risk is in the volatile factors that have helped moderate it.
Deputy Governor Jonathan Heath stressed in the presentation of the Quarterly Report that, when reading the expectations, one can see that “the market does not believe that we can lower inflation and that it could reach 3.5% at the end of 2024 and they are thinking that not even We are going to lower it to 4%.”
This made him warn that “it would be a huge mistake to prematurely lower the reference rate if we are not clear that we can win the battle against inflation in the estimated time.”
NEAR THE INTERVAL, THE UNDERLYING
According to the information collected by the survey, for underlying inflation, which incorporates only goods and services whose prices are not subject to any type of seasonal volatility, they predict that it will average 4.08% at the end of the year.
A projection that incorporates a second upward correction from the 4.04% estimated by themselves at the beginning of December and is the lowest estimate collected so far this year.
Core inflation is recognized as the purest inflation since it discounts the most volatile prices in the measurement and works as a guide for Banxico's monetary decisions.
WILL MODERATE GROWTH RATE
In the February survey, adjustments are observed in the forecasts for economic activity, measured by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
They now estimate a growth of 2.39% in GDP this year, which shows a downward adjustment from the estimate in the January survey, which was 2.37%. It is the highest forecast collected in 12 months.
The new average GDP forecast that private sector specialists have is below the expectations recently disclosed by international organizations such as the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), of 2.5%; the International Monetary Fund (IMF) which is 2.7%, and is within the range estimated by Bank of Mexico which is between 2.2% and 3.4%.
For next year's GDP, they project that activity will continue to moderate growth until reaching 1.94%. This forecast is close to the OECD expectation, which is 2% and is above the 1.5% recently projected by the Bank of Mexico.
