With this reference, contracts in Uruguay fall below US$ 380 per ton of soybeans when there are hundreds of thousands of tons of the last harvest left without setting a price, while the prices for soybeans for the next harvest do not reach US$ 350 per ton, a price that reduces incentives for planting.
For the second time in the last two weeks, the price of soybeans collapsed on the Chicago Stock Exchange, losing almost US$ 15 in one day in the first position and US$ 9 in the contracts for July 2025, with also pronounced drops in wheat. , which generates concern in the agricultural sector.
The spot price once again pierced the line of US$ 400 per ton, this Friday it went to US$ 395 per ton, the lowest value since the beginning of October 2020.
With this reference, contracts in Uruguay fall below US$ 380 per ton of soybeans when there are hundreds of thousands of tons of the last harvest left without setting a price, while the prices for soybeans for the next harvest do not reach US$ 350 per ton, a price that reduces incentives for planting.
BAD NEWS
Added to the dominant feeling of a well-supplied market this Friday were new forecasts of rain in the United States that improve the condition of the crops, which caused the grain to lose its positive weekly balance.
The US climate market is the main variable that influences soybean prices today, along with the competitiveness of Brazilian exports, which continue at a good pace and supported by a new rise in the dollar against the real.
The adjustment in the price of oil adds to the bearish factors.
Friday's losses also reached almost four-year lows, since September 2020, with a price of US$201.52 in the December position representing a 3.5% drop compared to the previous week.
Prices in Uruguay were barely above US$200 for wheat and malting barley at noon on Friday.
The United States already estimated that it would obtain a large wheat harvest, and the latest yield data is even more bearish for the market: a US crop tour reported record yields in North Dakota of 3,665 kilos per hectare, 15% higher than those of 2023. In addition, cheap wheat prices offered by exporters in the Black Sea region added pressure to the market, along with rising forecasts for Russian production in 2024/25, raised this week to almost 85 million tons.
CORN LOSSES
The downward projections for production in the European Union prevented further declines
higher, as well as the progression of the current harvest, 25 percentage points behind the
average progress for the time.
In Argentina, wheat sowing this week reached 98.5% of the 6.3 million hectares estimated by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange and barley advanced to 97.4% of the 1.3 million hectares for the 2024/25 campaign.
On Friday, corn lost almost everything it had gained during the week with a drop of almost US$5 in the first position that took the price to US$155 per ton, still 1% above the previous week's close.
The drop in oil this week and the marketing of the Brazilian harvest put downward pressure, as well as the very good state of crops in the United States.
The announced rains would allow us to enter August with less risk due to high temperatures, and new estimates see potentially upward yields.
In the May 2025 position, the price fell in the same proportion to US$ 171 per ton, still above the minimums of recent weeks. In Argentina, the first estimate of corn area projects a 23% drop in the national total, according to the Crea survey, which represents around 1.65 million hectares less than the previous year and a risk for grain-dependent chains. and for rotations.
Rapeseed prices faced downward pressure even though the European Commission reduced its forecast for EU rapeseed production in 2024/25 from 18.8 to 18.4 million tonnes.
The reduction in oil prices and the influence of the drop in crude oil influenced the reduction of the February 2025 price in the European market to US$532 and less than US$480 per ton in the local market.
The actors in the local agricultural sector, with the winter campaign activated and after an extended summer harvest due to climatic adversities, are focusing on market values and focusing on how the 2024/2025 sowing will be done.
