For Paraguay, lower production will necessarily imply lower income from royalties.
The production of the Paraguayan-Brazilian hydroelectric plant Itaipú will fall by 20% this year compared to the results achieved in 2023, despite the anti-alarmist attempts of official technical spokespersons of the binational entity, who assure that Itaipú “operates normally despite the hydrological crisis.”
The superintendent of Itaipu Operations on the Paraguayan side, Silver Guerrero, through an official statement from the entity, explained that the operation of the binational plant is optimized, a fact that allows them to obtain "greater performance in the generation of our machines."
He added, according to the reference information material, that, on average, “Itaipu’s productivity is approximately 1.06 MW average/m3/s and detailed that this unit “is the relationship between the amount of energy produced and the flow of water turbined for that production.”
“We are now having a production with a productivity of around 1.10 MW average/m3/s due to the operating conditions and the operational programming action at the plant. That is, even with little water, we are having good generation,” he added.
ITAIPU: NOT A GENEROUS FORECAST IN TERMS OF PRODUCTION
However, independent technical sources insist that one thing should not be confused with another, that is, "production" with "productivity." The report that includes the explanations of Superintendent Guerrero points out that "the forecast of total generation of Itaipu for this year, 2024, is around 67,000 GWh (1 GWh = 1000 MWh).
The records, also official, remind us that in 2023, the Paraguayan/Brazilian plant reached a production of 83,879 GWh, therefore, the decrease in Itaipú's production in 2024 will even exceed 20%, that is, in 2024 Itaipú, a fact attributable to the severe drought, will deliver to its customers 16,879 GWh less, an amount almost equivalent to the production of Yacyretá in 2023 or to the production of 18.5 plants like Acaray.
Is this a simple numbers game or a test of strength in search of some exotic result? Undoubtedly not. Firstly, because the figure put forward by Itaipu is below the 75,000 GWh, the commercialisation of which covers Itaipu's costs, according to what the then Brazilian general director, Ing.
Miguel Samek.
INCOME FROM ROYALTIES, COMPENSATION, ETC. WILL BE REDUCED.
In addition, for Paraguay, lower production will necessarily imply lower income in the form of royalties , because these benefits are measured by each GWh measured at the plant, as well as by the concept of Compensation to ANDE.
It will also imply a reduction in Paraguayan State income from Energy Transfer Compensation, because if production decreases, ANDE, in a logical reaction, will reduce the amount of energy it transfers to Brazil to meet the requirements of its own market.
