Accounting for two-thirds of the total population by that year, the growth of the middle class is expected to increase demand for air travel, both for leisure and business.
The Global Market Forecast 2024 (GMF) predicts that Airbus’ regional fleet will almost double by 2043. The fleet will grow from 1,560 to 2,670 aircraft over the next 20 years. Of the new deliveries, 90% will continue to be single-aisle aircraft and 10% wide-body aircraft.
Accounting for two-thirds of the total population in 2043, the growth of the middle class is expected to increase demand for air travel, both for leisure and business. In Latin America, annual trips per capita are projected to increase from 0.48 trips in 2023 to 0.94 in 2043. The rate of trips per capita will double in Peru and more than double in Brazil, Chile and Colombia.
Domestic and international passenger traffic in Latin America is expected to grow at an annual rate of 5.5% until 2027, as a result of the recovery from the pandemic. In the medium and long term, traffic will return to pre-pandemic trends and is expected to have an annual growth rate of 3.6% between 2028 and 2043.
According to GMF forecasts for Latin America, the age of the region's fleet is slightly lower than the world average. Currently, 37% of passenger aircraft in service are of the latest generation, compared to 30% worldwide. Latin America is in a renewal phase, which translates into a fleet with an average age of 100%.
less than 10 years.
The short-term priority for decarbonising the sector is to replace the remaining 63%, which could lead to CO2 savings of around 25% compared to previous-generation aircraft across the Airbus family. With the fleet set to almost double by 2043, manpower will be key.
The Global Services Forecast 2024-2043 (GSF) projects that there will be a cumulative need for an additional 136,000 professionals over the next 20 years, including 46,000 new technicians, 36,000 new pilots and 54,000 new cabin crew.
The regional commercial aviation services market is expected to almost double, with a compound annual growth rate of 3.6%. Airbus has sold more than 1,300 aircraft in Latin America and the Caribbean and has a significant market share in passenger aircraft in service. Around 800 are in service across the region, with nearly 500 in the order book. Since 1994, Airbus has secured 75% of net orders in the region.
