The Peruvian Exporters Association anticipates a growth of between 3% and 4% in shipments abroad.
Peruvian exports are on track to reach a new all-time high in 2025, expected to exceed US$76 billion, according to projections from the Association of Exporters of Peru (Adex).
Thus, the estimated growth, of between 3% and 4% annually compared to the result obtained at the end of 2024, is supported by a favorable international context, with a global economy that is expected to achieve an expansion of between 3% and 3.4%.
WHAT WOULD BE THE REASON FOR THESE RESULTS?
One of the key factors would be the rise in prices of some of the main products that make up the Peruvian export basket.
"The international price scenario for 2025 remains favorable. That is to say, the main Peruvian commodities , especially mining, will maintain high prices [...] It will remain at a fairly high level, which will surely also encourage exports," said Edgar Vásquez, director of the Center for Research on Global Economy and Business of the Association of Exporters (CIEN-Adex), in an interview with the Andina Agency .
Another positive fact is that the growth of the global economy will generate greater demand for products, which will benefit Peruvian exports.
"There will be opportunities for global business, meaning that we will see growth in the global economy that will generate greater demand for products. This will be positive for the Peruvian economy," he said.
Likewise, according to the former head of the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Tourism of Peru (Mincetur), the good performance of Peruvian exports in 2024, estimated at more than US$ 74 billion thanks to a positive international situation and favorable prices, establishes a solid base to reach a new record this year.
CHALLENGES
Despite the positive outlook, there are challenges that could affect export growth. “The main risk on a global scale is always related, above all, to armed conflicts,” said Vásquez.
Countries' economic policies are key, as are those that the new US president, Donald Trump, could implement, which would impact global trade. "All eyes are on Trump's inauguration on January 20," he said.
He also commented that the local context could directly influence the sector. "On the Peruvian side, we always see the situation that most affects us, which is the political aspect, the social aspect and, in some cases, climatic phenomena," he pointed out.
