Although the mining company closed 2024 with a slight rebound, it is still uncertain whether it will be able to maintain the accelerated pace it set in the last part of the year, given the long-term problems it has been dragging on.

Chilean state-owned company Codelco closed 2024 with a slight upturn in its own copper production, but that will not give it enough breathing room in its race to recover its level of 1.7 million tons per year at the end of the decade.

Industry analysts and Codelco workers consulted by Reuters doubted that the miner could maintain the accelerated pace it set in the latter part of 2024 to add more tons than the previous year.

In an internal document seen by Reuters , the company said its own output reached 1.328 million tonnes in 2024, at the low end of its target range and just about 3,500 tonnes higher than the previous year, when it posted its worst performance in a quarter of a century.

Analysts questioned the extent to which Codelco tapped into inventories to meet the target, and said a strategy was needed to offset mineral degradation at older facilities.

An equipment operator at one of Codelco's largest mines, Chuquicamata, said there was more pressure in the second half of 2024 to reduce routine stoppages and avoid incidents that could cause a shutdown.

The worker, who asked not to be identified because he is not authorized, said Codelco has yet to resolve bottlenecks in the transportation of minerals at the mine.

Last February, the company said it needed to shut down the ore transport system at Chuquicamata to replace the belts. That maintenance is expected to take place this year.

The workers also mentioned delays in maintenance at the Chuquicamata and El Teniente smelters.

"Chuquicamata already carried out its scheduled maintenance in December, while Caletones began its maintenance at the end of December and will continue until the first days of February. In this case, it does not imply a stoppage for the entire period, because one of its two lines continues to operate most of the time," Codelco said in response to Reuters.

Regarding the maintenance of the underground system, the firm explained that the maintenance has been planned for several months.

"The first stage of the process has already been completed, so the new belt has already arrived at the site. Precautions are being taken for the treatment of minerals from other divisions to meet the production goals for 2025," he said.

Codelco chairman Maximo Pacheco said it produced 160,000 tons of copper in December, its best performance for that month since 2019.

Miners typically draw on reserves to bolster their bottom line, but analysts said Codelco may have tapped into them more than usual.

"Although it is normal for production to increase in December, we believe this huge jump can be attributed to a very aggressive reduction in inventories," said Juan Carlos Guajardo, head of the consultancy firm Plusmining.

"Codelco will have to replenish these inventories at some point," he added.

LONG-TERM PROBLEMS PERSIST

"The real battle will continue to be the advancement of the larger projects such as Chuqui Subterránea or El Teniente, because it is with these projects that we can aspire to return to levels of over 1.7 million tons per year," said Guajardo.

These large mine overhaul projects have been plagued by delays, accidents and construction errors.

In its latest results, it said that the new phases of El Teniente - which it previously hoped to start in October and December - Andesita began extracting minerals but will start production in "the coming months", while Andes Norte plans to start extraction during the first quarter of 2025.

Cristián Cifuentes, an analyst at the Center for Copper Studies (CESCO), said that the Ministro Hales mine is still at reduced capacity and the ramp up of Chuqui Subterránea has been "slower than we all thought."

"When you add all these aspects together, you can see the complications. We see that this year we should increase production slightly, but we are still not going to reach the levels that Codelco wants," he said.

According to official figures, a large part of Codelco's success in 2024 could be attributed to the start-up of the upgrade of its small Salvador mine, which added 2,800 tons in October and November.

Although none of those interviewed questioned whether the company will be able to increase production this year compared to 2024, it does not look like a comfortable goal.

"I don't see how they will address (mineral) degradation except by entering new areas," said another analyst, who preferred not to be named, adding that Codelco will also take advantage of its purchase of 10% of Quebrada Blanca from Canada's Teck to give an idea of improved performance.

"Every year Codelco invests between 4 and 4.5 billion dollars and volumes are falling," he added.