At the end of January, two polls indicated that the current president has a chance of winning in the first round, either by obtaining more than 50% of the valid votes or by adding at least 40% and with a 10-point advantage over his closest rival.
Ecuadorians vote this Sunday to elect their next president, in an election in which current President Daniel Noboa is seeking the support of the majority for his promises to continue fighting crime, in order to avoid a runoff that would once again pit him against leftist Luisa González.
Noboa, 37, the heir to a business fortune, has said he can win in the first round, and two polls in late January indicated he has a chance of doing so, either by securing more than 50 percent of valid votes or by garnering at least 40 percent and a 10-point lead over his nearest rival.
Other polls show he could face a runoff election scheduled for April against González, whom he beat in the 2023 runoff to complete his predecessor's truncated term.
Both candidates have urged their voters to observe the counting at polling stations in an effort to prevent any manipulation, and politicians from Gonzalez's party have called for a "defense of the popular will."
"Ecuador has already changed and wants to continue changing, it wants to consolidate its victory. We are no longer a promise, we are a reality that this country has already decided," said Noboa at the end of his campaign on Thursday in Quito. "This Sunday, recover your ability to dream."
The president says that the deployment of military personnel on the streets and inside prisons, as well as other security measures, has reduced violent deaths by 15% in one year, has led to a drastic drop in violence in prisons and has facilitated the capture of important criminal leaders.
"In one year, the president has done many things that previous governments have not been able to do," said Kevin Galarza, a 20-year-old student who attended Noboa's campaign closing in Guayaquil. "Noboa will win in a single round, he is our hope."
His 15 opponents also seeking the presidency, including Gonzalez, have said more needs to be done to combat the drug-related violence that has roiled Ecuador in recent years, but some of the solutions they offer require hard-to-win legislative approval or constitutional changes.
Others, such as increased security at borders and ports, are already being implemented by the current government, according to Noboa.
It is not impossible
For González, a protégé of former President Rafael Correa, crime must be fought with permanent military and police operations, equipping the public forces, sanctions against supposedly corrupt judges and prosecutors, and a social spending plan in the most violent areas of the country.
"We cannot talk about controlling violence without thinking about social justice, about building an Ecuador of peace, not war," said González at his closing campaign in Guayaquil. "We are going to achieve this transformation with each one of you, we are going to save ourselves, but together."
Correa said this week on X that González is leading in the polls and that his victory in the first round "is not impossible."
"She is the only one with a coherent work plan and the necessary experience to govern," said Diego Soria, a 56-year-old architect at Gonzalez's last event in Quito. "We have an elite that is confident and for them the country is fine. The people need security, work, health, education."
Noboa — embroiled in a dispute with his vice president, Veronica Abad, who accuses him of violating the constitution over his campaign assignments — has announced several last-minute policies that appear designed to attract voters' attention, including economic aid for immigrants returning from the United States, tariffs on Mexican imports and a trade deal with Canada.
Some 13.7 million voters will also elect the 151 representatives to the National Assembly.
(Reporting by Alexandra Valencia in Quito. Yury García in Guayaquil; Editing by Javier Leira)
