The group estimates that Mexico's economy will also experience a 0.6% decline in 2026.

The Mexican economy will experience a recession that will continue into 2026, impacted by bilateral tariffs, economists from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) predicted.

These expectations assume that the United States will impose 25% tariffs on all products from Mexico, followed by Mexico's retaliation of the same magnitude.

In this context, they estimate that the Mexican economy will experience a 1.3% contraction this year, which will increase to another 0.6% in 2026. The GDP forecast for 2025 is far from the 1.2% they projected in November.

In the Interim Economic Outlook, the report they release every four months to update their growth forecasts for the G-20, they maintained that "if the announced (US) trade policy measures persist, as projected, the new bilateral tariffs will increase revenue for the governments that impose them but will be a drag on global economic activity, revenue, and regular tax collection."

"The impact of higher costs will be amplified when inputs cross borders multiple times and tariffs are incurred at each step, as will occur in the integrated North American market," they stressed.