In these times of profound political and economic upheaval, it is impossible to view the world without encountering references to relevant historical moments, from Edward Gibbon's "The Decline and Collapse of the Roman Empire," the many stories of the beginning and end of the Cold War, and the endless speeches about the "Great Game," the conflict between the Russian and English empires in the 19th century.
There are two major speeches on the updated version of that contest: one, led by Paul Kennedy, who in 1987 wrote his famous book “The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers,” an invitation to think about the risks that the United States already faced, almost days before the collapse of the Soviet Union, about the future that awaited that nation (long before China was perceived as a relevant player in these leagues).
Similar arguments have been outlined by numerous authors since then, but now in the context of the conflict between the two powers, China and the USA, with Graham Allison’s “Fated for War” standing out, whose subtitle reveals the central argument: “Can the United States and China escape the Thucydides Trap?”
In these days of rest but with enormous enthusiasm from the American president, here are some of my recent readings on topics related to the times we are living in.
The propensity to incur a new Cold War seems almost inevitable. Numerous books have emerged warning of the risk, others promoting it, but only one of those I've read has carefully analyzed and studied the factors that could lead in that direction and attempted to understand the rationale that drives both Americans and Chinese, which gives it a special quality, especially since it is written by an observer of Russian origin, which adds great value: Dimitri Alperovitch. The World at Risk.
Sergey Radchenko sets out to unravel the psychology of decision-making within the Kremlin in the postwar era: how to command the world? This was the objective that motivated the Soviet government throughout the Cold War.
The author analyzes the various moments of that era within the Soviet government, explaining the logic of military interventions, the change in leadership from Stalin to Gorbachev, and the successes and failures of the various attempts to overtake the West.
In Revolt, Robert Kagan explores the political and social dynamics, as well as the risks to American society, of the polarization that characterizes it. His central argument is that American society faces the dilemma of building an integrated and multiracial society.
Her starting point is that Trump is the latest of several figures who, since the Civil War in the mid-19th century, have used racism as their driving force. It's not the economy, says Kagan, but the preservation of a white society that long ago ceased to exist.
Marc-William Palen turns the world upside down. In his study of free trade, Pax Economica , he breaks with all dogma and preconception. His general argument is very simple and powerful: trade liberalization has always been a revolutionary idea of the left, starting with Marx himself.
It was a liberalizing approach against the rampant militarism and imperialism of the 19th century that brought together socialists, internationalists, radical liberals, feminists, and Christians.
Trade without barriers (albeit with some supranational regulations) was conceived as a way to advance the interests and needs of the poorest and most disadvantaged. Today, Palen concludes, the de facto alliance between the far right and the far left calls into question not only trade, but also the possibility of eliminating poverty worldwide.
Ruchir Sharma published a seminal book , What Went Wrong With Capitalism, in which he argues that the world has been moving away from the virtues of capitalism by claiming to protect the rich and the poor, the middle class and the workers.
Ever-increasing budgets are being devoted to reducing the uncertainty inherent in the economic process, which translates into ever-increasing spending to pay for a growing propensity to take unacceptable risks, both in the financial world and in real estate and other areas.
Instead of promoting innovation, increasingly burdensome governments threaten future well-being. Essential reading.
Kevin Rudd, former Prime Minister of Australia, is an expert on China, the country where he lived and whose language he speaks and understands perfectly. He has written several books about the nation.
One, which I already mentioned a couple of years ago, was titled The Avoidable War, alluding to the conflict between the United States and China, but also to Allison's book I mentioned above.
This year, he published a monumental work on the thought and policies of Xi Jinping, the Chinese president. In the Trump era, this book provides a better understanding of the political dynamics that characterize the interaction between the two powers and at least some of the reasons for the conflict that go beyond the strictly economic.
