Valmex expert estimates that Mexico's GDP will register a growth of 1.9% this year, which is far from the 2.2% that it anticipated at the beginning of 2024 and that it will continue to moderate towards 1.5% in the first year of government.

The Mexican economy will continue to slow down, impacted by the high interest rates that will continue to be present even next year and by incorporating the fiscal effort to consolidate public accounts, estimated this Thursday the chief economist of Mexican Securities Casa de Bolsa (Valmex), Víctor Ceja Cross.

The expert estimates that Mexico's GDP will register a growth of 1.9% this year, which is far from the 2.2% that he anticipated at the beginning of 2024 and that it will continue to moderate towards 1.5% in the first year of government.

In a press conference to announce his half-year outlook, he explained that another factor that will reduce dynamism to the economy will be government spending. In his opinion, the public deficit will go from 5.9% of GDP, which incorporates the reading of obligations in its broadest measure, to 4.9% of GDP. A path to consolidation that could limit the possibility of a rating cut, he considered.

Regarding the restrictive rate that Banxico applies to bring inflation to the target, he estimated that there will be two cuts this year, of 25 points each, which would leave the rate at 10.50 percent. This level of income would leave monetary policy still in a restrictive stance.

The expert highlighted that starting in August, he expects divided decisions in the Governing Board, from 3 to 2; where the faithful balance will be the deputy governor Omar Mejía Castelazo, since he considers that "it is very clear that two members of the Board want to leave it unchanged and two more want to cut it, so everything will be in his hands."

He anticipates that next year, the cuts will continue until the nominal rate is brought to 8.50%, which will continue to be restrictive.