Experts from the financial consultancy firm point out that Mexico is the most exposed to the shift in trade and immigration policy of the Trump administration.
The Mexican economy will lose around one point of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in 2025, impacted by the tariff and export policies of the United States, as well as by the internal fiscal adjustment being implemented by the government, according to Moody's Analytics.
Alfredo Coutiño, director for Latin America at the consultancy, said that his growth forecast for Mexico remains unchanged at 0.6%, as it was in November, and he pointed out that our country is the most exposed to the shift in the United States' trade and immigration policy.
However, he stressed that Brazil will be hit harder by the combined slowdown in demand from the United States and China, and will also have to deal with the consequences of a fiscal adjustment.
During the presentation of its growth outlook for Latin America, the director of economic analysis at Moody's Analytics estimated that the imposition of tariffs will have a significant impact on Mexico's trade and nearshoring .
He pointed out that the flow of foreign investment was already facing obstacles as a result of constitutional reforms such as the one on the judiciary and the one that eliminated autonomous bodies. In reality, tariffs will add more uncertainty.
CITI SURVEY
Meanwhile, the market consensus is that the Mexican economy will achieve 1% growth this year, according to the Citi survey. This expectation incorporates a second downward adjustment from the 1.1% forecast at the beginning of the year.
The projection is close to the midpoint of the range projected by the Bank of Mexico for growth, which is between 0.4% and 2% and is below the range of 2 to 3% expected by the federal government, as set out in the General Criteria of Economic Policy 2025, on which the budget is based.
While the consensus points to a growth of 1%, in the details of the information it can be seen that there are strategists who anticipate a minimum advance of 0.2%, such as Banamex and four other groups, which anticipate a growth of less than 1 percent. This is the case of Barclays, Bank of America Securities, Scotiabank (0.8%) and Natixis (0.9 percent).
Among the 29 financial groups surveyed by Citi, two have the highest growth expectations: Signum Research and Masari, a brokerage firm, at 1.8 percent. Another 25 have GDP growth forecasts of between 1 and 1.8 percent.
ADJUSTED TO LOW EXPECTATIONS FOR 2024
The survey again collected their forecasts for last year's growth. As we know, the final GDP for 2024 will be officially released by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) on February 21.
According to the survey results, GDP growth in 2024 was 1.5% lower than the 1.6% forecast at the beginning of the year. This forecast is also below the government's official estimate, which was between 2 and 3 percent.
The market's expectations are lower than those estimated by international organizations such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which recently released their updated forecasts of 1.7 and 1.8%, respectively. Or compared to the forecasts of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), which is 1.4 percent.
INFLATION AND RATES
According to the results of the Citi survey, inflation in January will be 0.27 percent. They predict that by the end of the year, inflation will be 3.91% annually, which will enter the range of the Bank of Mexico's specific target for the first time.
