Although experts from the Andean country say that Donald Trump's invitation to Daniel Noboa to the ceremony on January 20 is a "good sign," there has not yet been an official statement on the direction that bilateral relations between the two countries will take.
“They need us, much more than we need them. We don’t need them. They need us, everyone needs us.” This is just one of the phrases that has placed Donald Trump in the global trending topic in his first hours as the 47th president of the United States.
That was Trump's response after being questioned by journalists in the Oval Office about relations with Latin America and Brazil.
But he also referred to other countries in the region. Regarding Venezuela, he said that “we will probably stop buying oil from Venezuela. We don’t need it.”
Regarding Panama, he reiterated what he had been saying for weeks about China's alleged control of the canal.
“We gave the Panama Canal to Panama, not to China, the promises have been broken and now we will take the Canal back.”
This 80-kilometer-long waterway carries 3 percent of all global maritime trade and connects 180 routes in 170 countries through 1,920 ports around the world, according to data from the Canal Authority. Trump's claim has been denied by officials in Panama City and Beijing.
Panamanian President Jose Raul Mulino has repeatedly called this “nonsense,” stressing that there is “absolutely no Chinese interference” in the canal.
What will happen with Ecuador? There has not yet been a statement from Trump, or from his administration, on the direction that relations with Ecuador will take, whether from the political, security or commercial spheres, although President Daniel Noboa was among the leaders invited to Donald Trump's inauguration on Monday, January 20, which experts say is a good sign.
INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL POLICY: "A CLEAR WAY FOR THE NEXT TWO YEARS"
International law analyst Esteban Santos describes the US president as “a Trump 2.0, a Trump without any shame, a Donald Trump who controls the Republican Party and a Republican Party that controls both the Upper House and the Lower House and that has a direct influence on one of the most conservative supreme courts in recent US history.”
According to the expert, in the next two years, when the first mid-term elections will take place, Trump will have a free hand to impose his imprint on the international community and on domestic and foreign policy. Santos projects a much more ironclad administration that does not believe in multilateralism or trade agreements.
“He believes in imposition, which is why he spoke in his own inaugural address about tariffs against China to carry out manufacturing in the United States for the automotive industry. He has been very tough with Panama, because what he wants is to regain direct influence and control.”
Regarding what Trump said about Latin America, Santos indicates that we have to wait, since Marco Rubio, appointed Secretary of State of this new administration, has been very strong against the 'dictatorships' in the region (Nicaragua, Venezuela and Cuba).
However, the expert highlights the positive side of all these new Trump policies, and the fact that President Daniel Noboa was present at his inauguration "opens a window of very strong possibilities" for Ecuador's foreign policy, although everything will depend on what happens in February with the elections in Ecuador.
ECONOMIC: "A STRONG DOLLAR IS NOT CONVENIENT FOR ECUADOR"
Economically, for Alberto Acosta Burneo, editor of Análisis Semanal, in the short term, President Trump's policy of expanding public spending and imposing tariffs on everyone has strengthened the dollar, although it is a trend that will not be long-term and may last only until the first half of 2025.
However, this would also affect the Ecuadorian economy in the short term: “A stronger dollar is a challenge for the competitiveness of exports. As long as this trend continues, there will be concern on the part of the export sector... The Trump effect, in the short term, is a strong dollar, which is not good for Ecuador.”
He says that the Trump administration will represent “great challenges” for Ecuador. On the trade side, a universal tariff creates uncertainty. “If a tariff that affects Ecuadorian products is implemented, it will destroy competitiveness, which is very worrying for the country,” says Acosta.
Another risk for Ecuador is being caught in the middle of the trade war between China and the United States, two of its main markets for its exports.
"The risk is that Ecuador becomes trapped in some geopolitical conflict, as happened between the United States and Russia over the arms scrap. This risk could also occur in this new dispute between China and the United States, which could eventually complicate our relationship and one of these two commercial partners, which are equally important, could end up retaliating against Ecuador," he said.
On the other hand, he says that the Trump era will be characterized by a very aggressive policy of promoting oil production, which will lead to a fall in fuel prices. This could also create complications for Ecuador because oil prices could be lower due to the increase in the US oil supply that Trump wants to force.
And he believes that there are options for rapprochement in political and security matters, as he assures that Trump wants Ecuador as an ally in the fight against drug-related criminal groups.
