David Beker, a specialist at the US bank, recalled that in 2023 the progress in the gross domestic product (GDP) in the neighboring country was better than initially estimated, surprising experts, with a growth of 2.9%.
Brazil's economy will grow this year more than what has been projected in the financial market, according to David Beker, head of economic analysis for Brazil and Latin America at Bank of America, who gave an interview to Folha in which he stated that Thrust in 2024 can reach 2.7%.
The article recalled that in 2023 the progress in the gross domestic product (GDP) in the neighboring country was better than initially estimated, surprising experts, with a growth of 2.9%.
Beker pointed out that, despite the optimistic view he drew, "the market will continue to be under pressure to review activity" and that "there were people who were very skeptical about the issue of growth, these people need to review."
BANK OF AMERICA ESTIMATE
This year the Bank of America estimated, based on the work of the Brazilian economist, that there will be a growth of 2.7% in GDP, when officially it was 2.05%.
Beker pointed out: "One thing is certain, for several quarters the market has been surprised to the upside, not just today."
On the bases on which he built his upward estimate, he pointed out that they are very low unemployment and a recovery in wages with less inflation and the credit cycle.
In the breakdown by segments, he opined: "We see productivity increases in agribusiness, that is clear, there are also productivity gains in financial services (and) great advances in the banking sector in recent years, but not in the industry and services in general.
"We hope that the industry will recover. As for agriculture, the situation is more complicated due to the extraordinary base of last year. The service sector will do well thanks to the labor market, the increase in real wages and credit behavior "So I would say that industry and services are what attract."
Another of Beker's considerations, in his dialogue with journalist Victor Sena, is that a higher potential GDP "does not necessarily lead to a lower neutral interest rate."
SLOPE: IMPACT BY FLOODS
Beker also spoke about the recent floods in Rio Grande do Sul, a key state in the country's economic development: "It is a tragedy, it is an extremely complicated situation and we have to provide support," he expressed.
Regarding the impact on GDP, he stated that it is not possible to give an answer, although there are those who are guessing values, given that "there are many places where the water did not even go down."
"That brings a downside risk to our estimate," he admitted.
Monthly data for May, yet to be released, "will show something," he added; "Then we will be able to calibrate a little better, in any case one of our main theses is that growth this year is more uniform growth, with an important component of consumption," he concluded.
