According to economic analysts, this reflects the depreciation of the peso and the slowdown in fixed investment.
Imports of capital goods to Mexico amounted to US$ 15,051 million in the third quarter of 2024, which implied a 6.3% quarterly decline and its biggest drop since the second quarter of 2020, Inegi reported.
After this indicator decreased by 16.9% throughout 2020, affected by the Covid-19 pandemic, it recorded year-on-year increases of 21.8% in 2021, 18.9% in 2022 and 20.0% in 2023.
“The drop in capital imports during the third quarter is worrying, as it is the largest since the pandemic and may reflect lower confidence and a deterioration in gross fixed investment, something that could also be reflected in Foreign Direct Investment, specifically in the new investment component,” said Gabriela Siller and Jesús Anacarsis López, analysts at Banco Base.
In the first nine months of 2024, imports of capital goods grew by 7.2% to US$45.797 billion.
Mexico held presidential elections last June, in which Claudia Sheinbaum won; while the United States will hold its presidential elections on November 5, between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
Looking ahead, Mexico will begin a review process of the United States-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement (USMCA) in 2025, while a confrontation on trade and technology issues between China and the United States continues.
In the third quarter of 2024, total imports to Mexico grew 2.01% at a quarterly rate, showing less dynamism than the 8.49% growth in the immediately preceding quarter.
Domestically, imports of consumer goods grew 4.4 percent, slowing from 6.5 percent in the second quarter, and imports of intermediate goods rose 2.7 percent, slowing from 8.8 percent.
Banco Base analysts said that the deterioration in imports says more about Mexico's economic situation, since the slowdown in imports of consumer goods is a sign of weak domestic demand for imports and the loss of purchasing power of the peso, given the depreciation observed after the elections in Mexico.
Since May 31 (last business day before the elections and October 28), the peso has depreciated 17.61% against the dollar.
Imports of intermediate goods have also slowed, which is consistent with the deterioration of manufacturing activity in Mexico.
According to information available through August, manufacturing in the first eight months of the year showed a contraction of 0.4%, and automotive manufacturing in particular showed a contraction of 0.3 percent.
The value of merchandise imports in September 2024 was US$ 50,205 million, an amount that implied an annual drop of 1.8 percent. This was due to a 33.8% decrease in oil imports and a 1.4% increase in non-oil imports.
