The Aztec nation is one of the main suppliers of agricultural products to the United States, with imports of goods from that sector valued at almost US$ 86 billion last year, according to data from Customs and the United States Department of Agriculture.

Prices for avocados, strawberries and other U.S. produce could rise and be tight next year if President-elect Donald Trump moves ahead with plans to impose tariffs on products from Mexico and Canada, agricultural economists and industry executives said.

Mexico and Canada are by far the top two suppliers of agricultural products to the United States, importing nearly $86 billion worth of agricultural goods last year, according to data from Customs and the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Tariffs on its food shipments could cause discordant financial and operational ripple effects on U.S. supplies and highlight how dependent the nation has become on its neighbors to feed its population, economists said.

Trump said Monday he would sign an executive order on his first day in office in January that would impose a 25% tariff on all goods coming into the United States from Canada and Mexico to stem the flow of illegal drugs and migrants to its borders.

U.S. consumers would feel the impact in grocery stores and restaurants, with items out of stock, Lance Jungmeyer, president of the Fresh Produce Association of the Americas, said Tuesday.

"We would see fewer items overall in the produce section," Jungmeyer said. "Restaurants would have to reconfigure their menus, perhaps putting fewer fruits and vegetables or decreasing portions."

About two-thirds of all U.S. vegetable imports and half of all fruit and nut imports come from Mexico, according to the USDA: nearly 90% of its avocados, up to 35% of its orange juice and 20% of its strawberries.

Avocado exports to the United States have soared 48% since 2019, according to U.S. trade data, as consumers increasingly put them in salads and sandwiches.

The U.S. market accounts for about 80 percent of Mexico's total avocado exports, USDA data show, a trade valued at $3 billion last year.

"It would create an inflationary spiral," said Alfredo Ramirez, governor of Michoacan, Mexico's top avocado-producing state.

"Demand would not fall," he said. "What would rise are costs and prices. This would lead to higher inflation and direct repercussions for consumers."

Even margarita cocktails could be affected. Beer and tequila imports together accounted for nearly a quarter of Mexican agricultural product imports into the United States last year.

U.S. imports of Mexican tequila and mezcal — both used to make cocktails such as the margarita — totaled $4.66 billion in 2023, up 160% from 2019.

MIGRATION OF PIGS AND CATTLE

Trump's plan would also curb the migration of more than a million cows exported by Mexico across the border each year to become part of the U.S. beef supply.

U.S. producers have cut back on their herds in recent years, driving up beef prices.

They could benefit if tariffs lead to fewer cattle and beef imports, said Bill Bullard, executive director of the United Cattlemen of America Legal Action Fund.

Tariffs could also further increase meat prices for American consumers, although Bullard said importers and meat processors could absorb some additional costs.

"We look forward to the tariffs," he said. "It will help level the playing field for our domestic producers."

In the north, tariffs could also disrupt shipments of cattle, dairy cattle and hogs between the United States and Canada, potentially affecting producers in both countries.

TRUMP'S TRADE WAR 2.0

The latest USDA projections show the United States will likely run an agricultural trade deficit of more than $42 billion in 2025, driven in part by consumer interest in out-of-season produce and imported alcohol from Mexico.

The threat of tariffs could be a way to gain leverage over Mexico and Canada in the run-up to the renegotiation of the USMCA trade deal, which is up for review in 2026, said Peter Tabor, a lawyer and senior policy adviser at Holland & Knight and a former USDA trade official.

But applying high tariffs over time could mean the United States is seen as an unreliable trading partner and importers of American goods look elsewhere to fill the void, Tabor said.