While some industries prefer to wait for the reaction of American consumers, others will diversify markets to mitigate the impact of tariffs on imports from China, Mexico and Canada.
The possible impact of the tariffs imposed by the United States on imports from China (20%), Canada and Mexico (25%), which according to experts would be felt first in the US economy with a drop in consumption, keeps the Ecuadorian export sector on edge, which has the US as one of the main destinations for its three star products: shrimp, bananas and cocoa, which in 2024 represented US$ 2,542 million in exports to that market alone, according to official figures.
Despite the uncertainty, some players in the local export sector prefer to wait and see how the US market reacts; others, however, are already planning strategies that include market diversification to mitigate the impact.
Shrimp is the main Ecuadorian product reaching the US market. In 2024, the US was the second best market for the Ecuadorian crustacean, with US$ 1,546 million and a growth of 7% compared to 2023, only behind China, where Ecuador exported shrimp for US$ 3,235 million, although it was 16% less than in 2023.
The second most exported product to the US is bananas. In 2024, Ecuadorian banana exports to that market amounted to US$ 512 million, with a growth of 20% compared to shipments in 2023.
For national bananas, the United States is its third best market, surpassed by the European Union (US$ 1,084 million in exports in 2024) and Russia (US$ 665 million).
For José Antonio Hidalgo, executive director of the Association of Banana Exporters of Ecuador (AEBE), it is still too early to project an impact on banana exports to the US, although he confirmed that any impact related to the imposition of tariffs will be transmitted directly to the final consumer.
“It is an economic dynamic that can influence consumer behavior,” Hidalgo said.
However, he reiterated that it is still too early to be able to measure whether or not there will be impacts from the tariff measure taken by the Donald Trump government.
"Many of the issues are still not being implemented... We would have to see how the products are now being brought to the end consumer... and how the domestic consumer behaves," said the AEBE spokesperson.
Meanwhile, cocoa was one of the three products that grew the most in exports to the US in 2024, with an increase of 183%. According to figures from the Ministry of Production, Foreign Trade, Investments and Fisheries, last year cocoa exports to the US market generated US$ 484 million.
The United States is the third best destination for Ecuadorian cocoa. In 2024, the first was the European Union, with US$ 1,298 million, 281% more than what was exported in 2023; and the second destination was Malaysia, with US$ 579 million and a growth of 99%.
Merlyn Casanova, executive director of the National Association of Cocoa Exporters (Anecacao), acknowledged that the trade war and tariffs between the US and its trading partners can generate uncertainty in the consumption of various products, including cocoa.
He stressed that, although the United States is a key market for Ecuadorian cocoa, the sector maintains a perspective of resilience.
“First of all, Ecuadorian cocoa is recognized for its high quality, which gives it a competitive advantage over other suppliers. In addition, global demand for cocoa products, especially in premium and fair trade segments, continues to grow, which diversifies our business opportunities,” Casanova said.
He said that the sector remains confident for the time being, as demand for Ecuadorian cocoa has proven to be strong in the global market.
However, he noted that if there were a decrease in consumption in the US, the sector would explore market diversification strategies and strengthening of the value chain to mitigate possible impacts.
“Monitoring market trends and working with business partners is also key to maintaining the stability of the sector,” he said.
