According to a study by Colliers, the 2024/2025 cherry season left Chilean producers with losses of an estimated US$1.5 billion, which could increase.
The last few months have not been the best for the Chilean cherry sector.
This was due to the high levels of exports that "flooded" the Chinese market, lowering prices, to which was added the disaster of the Maersk Saltoro, whose delay in reaching port caused the loss of millions of dollars.
All of this is leaving one of the country's most important exports in the red.
And all this is not insignificant, given that cherry shipments abroad accounted for US$ 3.575 billion FOB in 2024 according to the Central Bank of Chile. Of the total, US$ 3.284 billion arrived in Chinese ports.
CHILEAN CHERRIES MIGHT NOT HAVE HAD A GOOD SEASON
In this context, Colliers conducted an analysis which showed that the 2024/2025 cherry season left local producers with losses of an estimated US$1.5 billion.
If the total value of the containers on the Saltoro ship (about US$ 120 million) is added, the losses would rise to US$ 1.6 billion.
“With cherry exports to China, Chile's main recipient of this species, having ended, with more than 90% of the exported fruit destined for this market, the figures for the agricultural sector are not encouraging,” warned the manager of the Agricultural Fields Area of Colliers, Rodrigo Gil.
CHERRY EXPORTS TO CHINA "PILED UP"
According to the consultancy firm, the analysis is based on average return values of US$ 5 per kilogram of cherry - last three seasons.
However, in the current season, the figure would be US$ 2.5/kg at best, due to the lack of settlements by exporters.
The reasons behind the analysis include a sharp increase in exports, from 83 million boxes (2023/24) to 120 million (2024/25), an increase of 55%.
The key point here is that the “bulk of the first shipments” did not contain better quality cherries, due to climatic issues in Chile, which was also caused by the “rush” of Chinese importers to have enough fruit for the Chinese New Year celebrations, says Rodrigo.
The drop in the quality of the fruit led to a drop in prices, and “when it arrived at its optimal state of ripeness, it did so in large volumes with the Chinese New Year just around the corner, it came across fruit that had not yet been sold and a lot of stock accumulated, which led to prices that did not recover,” explained the Colliers expert.
Looking to the future, the consultancy firm predicts a sharp increase in cherry exports due to “close to 80 thousand hectares of plants,” which would mean shipments of up to 200 million boxes by 2030, adding that strategies must be sought to diversify the destination markets for Chilean cherries.
Along these lines, the president of the National Agricultural Society (SNA), Antonio Walker, already anticipated that they were seeking to meet with ProChile to find a way to reach new markets such as countries in the Middle East, North Africa, India and Southeast Asia.
In this regard, Rodrigo Gil also highlighted the announcement by the Ministry of Agriculture regarding the sanitary opening by Indonesia, which will begin to receive cherries and other products.
He also warns that one should try to “prevent fruit exports from being concentrated in a few days, with orchard management strategies that allow gradual ripening and avoid concentrations of harvests and shipments.”
