Before the first round of voting, the indicator stood at 903 points, a record high in the last two years. After the results of the elections, it rose to 1,162 points. Since then, and until April 10, the indicator has increased by 746 points.
Just days before the second round of elections and amid the global crisis caused by the United States' tariff policy and the fall in international oil prices, Ecuador's country risk index rose again this Thursday, April 10, reaching 1,908 basis points, according to data from the Central Bank of Ecuador (BCE).
On Wednesday, April 9, the index fell to 1,736 points, after reaching 1,840 points on Tuesday, according to ECB figures.
Country risk is developed by the American investment bank JP Morgan. It measures international markets' expectations of a country's ability to honor its obligations. The higher the score, the greater the risk of default.
The volatility of country risk occurs in an environment of high political uncertainty due to the results of the runoff election on Sunday, April 13, between presidential candidate Daniel Noboa and Correísmo candidate Luisa González.
An analysis by the risk rating agency Fitch Rating, published Wednesday, warns that the election results will be decisive for the continuation of Ecuador's economic program with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
"The tight race has created uncertainty around Ecuador's compliance with its 2024 IMF program, its recovery of market access to meet growing financing needs, and its ability and willingness to meet its debt obligations," the firm noted.
Fitch Ratings has placed Ecuador's long-term sovereign risk rating at CCC+, implying a real risk of the country defaulting on its debt.
Before the first round of elections, held on February 9, the country risk index stood at 903 points, a record high in the last two years. Following the election results, it rose to 1,162 points. Since then, and through April 10, the indicator has increased by 746 points.
Aside from the elections, the outlook for the country is complicated by the fall in the international price of WTI crude oil (the benchmark for Ecuador), which has dropped below $60 per barrel, as a result of the increase in oil production by OPEC+ member countries and the effects of the global trade war unleashed by the tariffs imposed by the Donald Trump administration.
The collapse in the WTI price is below the Ecuadorian government's forecast, which estimated the average crude oil export price at $63.7 per barrel for the extended fiscal budget for 2025. This implies lower oil revenues for the government.
