The IMF revealed that Colombia and Chile lead the region with the highest numbers of unemployed population, Peru remains in the middle of the table and Mexico seems to be the leading student. But what do the official figures for each country say?

Although slowed, economic growth persists in Latin America. However, at the same time, job opportunities leave much to be desired in various countries in the region. Already in 2023, the International Labor Organization (ILO) recognized that the most urgent labor problem in Latin America “is the quality of employment, as well as the insufficient labor income of workers and their families.” High rates of informality and rampant inflation worsen the situation.

Recently, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published a projections report through the consulting firm Statista , which seeks to present approximate figures for the percentage of unemployed in the region by 2024. It should be noted that the IMF defines this population as those people who make up the economically active population (EAP) and are looking for a job, but without finding it.

Under this premise, Colombia heads the ranking with an unemployment rate of 9.9%; They are followed by Chile, with 8.7% and Uruguay, with 8.1%. Subsequently, in the middle section of the list are Brazil and Argentina, both with 8.0%; Peru (6.6%) and Paraguay (6.0%). Finally, the table closes with Bolivia (5.0%), Ecuador (4.2%) and Mexico (2.8%). The Latin American countries of Central America and the Caribbean were not considered in the study.

COLOMBIA AT THE PUNTA

With respect to the Pacific Alliance, as in other indicators, member countries maintain a significant contrast between their unemployment levels. We are talking about a problem that is not only supported by the IMF study, but also in national reports.

As an example, last Friday the 12th, the National Administrative Department of Statistics of Colombia (DANE) revealed that there were more than 2.6 million unemployed in the country by May 2024. This is a figure that rises to 10.3 % of the active population, despite the fact that there was a symbolic decrease of 0.2% compared to the same month in 2023.

For its part, according to DANE, Colombia has one of the highest costs of living at the regional level, as it registered an annual inflation of 7.18% in June. While informality, the other great evil mentioned by the ILO, reaches 55% of a total of 23 million employed people. The difficulty in registering workers in this sector raises doubts about whether unemployment rates are, in reality, even more critical than the current ones.

However, there are economic sectors that can overcome the situation, but it will take time. In May, 463,000 Colombians joined the labor market, which has been translated in part as a result of the good performance of the construction sector. As an example, the category of “civil works”, linked to road and health infrastructure, grew by 16.9% year-on-year.

THE CHALLENGE IN CHILE AND PERU

Chile, the other leader in the IMF ranking, also shows reserved forecasts regarding the fight against unemployment. Thus, the latest report from the National Institute of Statistics (INE), published in May, revealed that 8.5% of the EAP was unemployed. It is a figure that implies a drop of 0.2% in 12 months and is accompanied by the incorporation of 332,570 people into the labor market.

According to the INE, this decrease is generated by the increase in the labor force, belonging to citizens of working age who have the capacity to be employed or unemployed, was lower (3.5%) than that registered by people occupied (3.7%). It is a trend that positively influences the availability of job opportunities and, in the long run, reduces unemployment.

And although the rate of unemployed people increased by 1.9%, it is an increase motivated mainly by those entering the labor market (17.3%) and those who were unemployed (0.5%). Finally, although informality registered an interannual growth of 0.8%, concentrating on women, the truth is that the total 28.2% remains the lowest figure in the region.

Further north, Peru, still recovering from an economic recession, has seen minor changes in its unemployed population data. According to the latest study by the state National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI) published this July 15, unemployment in Lima, the country's capital and national reference point, stood at 6.6% of the EAP during the second quarter of the year.

If we transfer the percentage to the numbers, we obtain that between April and June 2024, Lima reached 5.4 million employed inhabitants, which represents an increase of 4.7% (245,800) compared to the same period of the previous year.

It is convenient to remember that this is an approximation: the INEI estimated the EAP universe in Lima at 5.8 million. The remaining citizens would accumulate about 400,000 unemployed, thus resulting in 6.6%. Furthermore, if we take into account that the state entity estimates that in 2022, 75% of the EAP in Lima worked in the informal sector, we are left with a scenario where underemployment and precariousness abound, especially among women, as well as than in neighboring Chile.

A symptom of the aftermath of the recession is that current unemployment figures still exceed the 6.4% recorded in 2019, the year before the COVID-19 pandemic. Of course, both are very far from the dramatic 16.3% that existed between April and June 2020, in the middle of the first wave of the coronavirus.

MEXICO, THE BEST RELEASE?

Likewise, Mexico, one of the best positioned in the IMF ranking, has registered notable progress in recent months. At the end of May, on the eve of the presidential elections, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) revealed that the unemployment rate fell to 2.5% in the first quarter of 2024, thus representing an improvement to 2.7%. % shown during the same period in 2023.

In real numbers, the EAP amounted to 60.7 million people, which involves a year-on-year increase of 570,000 Mexicans. The key sectors that contributed to job placement were financial and corporate professional services (245,000); in various services, with 181,000; in social services, with 158,000, and finally, restaurants and hotels, with 136,000.

Although other challenges persist, such as high informality (54.3% of the EAP) and gender disparity: 75.9% of men work, compared to 45.9% of women who do so. On the other hand, the 2024 National Occupation and Employment Survey (ENOE) also shows less optimistic figures regarding the availability of work. Well, in April, the unemployment rate had a monthly rise from 2.3 to 2.6%. More than 206,000 Mexicans joined the unemployed population and in addition, the formal sector lost workers in favor of the informal sector.

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