Spain, Türkiye, and Argentina are exceptions to the OECD's global growth forecast for 2025, dragged down by declining projections in the United States and the eurozone.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has slightly revised downward its global growth forecasts for 2025, dragged down by declining projections in the United States and the eurozone.
Projections for Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. fall due to tariffs
The aggressiveness of the United States' trade policies is particularly affecting its neighbors, Canada and Mexico, whose forecasts are plummeting: compared to December, they are almost threefold lower in Canada, with expected growth of 0.7% in 2025, and 2.5 percentage points lower in Mexico, which will enter a recession this year, according to the OECD.
The ongoing trade tensions since US President Donald Trump returned to power and the geopolitical and political uncertainties affecting numerous countries are penalizing growth prospects, the OECD notes in explanation of this downward revision.
REDUCTION FOR THE WORLD AND FOR THE U.S. IN 2025
The organization thus expects global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to grow by 3.1% in 2025, compared to 3.3% in its previous projection in December.
The United States, whose president is threatening a trade war with its major trading partners, is expected to grow its GDP by 2.2% this year, before 1.6% next year, according to the OECD.
The international organization thus lowered its growth forecasts for the US economy in 2025 and 2026 by 0.2 and 0.5 points, respectively.
According to the organization, growth in the United States, Mexico, and Canada "will slow as tariff increases take effect."
DISCOUNT FOR GERMANY AND FRANCE
In its forecasts, the OECD notes that, in addition to tariffs between the United States, Canada, and Mexico, it only took into account the new tariffs in place between the United States and China, and those on steel and aluminum.
Neither the threats of reciprocal tariffs mentioned by Trump nor those relating to the European Union were considered.
Despite this, the OECD has revised downwards, for the second consecutive time, its growth forecasts for 2025 for Germany and France, the largest and second-largest economies in the eurozone.
The OECD now expects GDP to grow by 0.4% this year in Germany, less than its previous forecast of 0.7% but more than the 0.2% forecast by the Ifo Institute for Economic Research in Munich. France has been less affected, with a growth forecast of 0.8% this year, 0.1 percentage points lower than in December.
For Japan, another major US partner, a reduction in its growth forecast for 2025 is also projected to 1.1% (-0.4 points).
Chinese growth is expected to reach 4.8% in 2025, virtually unchanged from the December forecast (+0.1%).
buck the trend: argentina, spain and Türkiye on the rise
In this context, the OECD revised upwards its growth forecasts for the Spanish economy for 2025 and 2026, which, along with Türkiye, is the only major member country with a clearly reversed trend.
In its interim Outlook report published this Monday (17.03.2025), the OECD expects that, after that growth was 3.2% in 2024 - the highest in that group, matched only by Turkey - it will be 2.6% in 2025, three-tenths more than what it anticipated in December.
By 2026, the positive correction is minimal (one-tenth compared to three months ago), but, in any case, Spain will exceed the figure for the eurozone as a whole by one percentage point and will also be above that of the rest of the major developed countries with the exception of Türkiye, according to the OECD.
Forecasts for Argentina also show a sharp upward revision: contrary to the general trend for most other G20 economies, the OECD now estimates that the Argentine economy will emerge from recession this year with growth of 5.7%.
The OECD has improved its 2025 forecasts for Argentina last December by 2.1 percentage points, marking the largest upward revision by far within the G20. Turkey follows with a correction of 0.5 percentage points, to 3.1%.
