Peru and Colombia experienced drops in hydrocarbon exports due to lower demand, while Chile consolidated its commercial relationship with China, and Mexico decreased foreign sales to the US.
As the first half of the year draws to a close, trade reports for the first quarter of 2024 begin to be published in Pacific Alliance countries. Generally, trends from previous months continued, but there were some changes tied to specific developments.
Case in point of the latter, Colombia, where external sales fell 14.2% compared to March 2023. This negative outcome was largely due to a 15.5% drop in exports from the category of fuels and derivatives of extractive industries.
At the same time within this sector, moderate growth (0.04%) was recorded in crude oil exports (14.7 million barrels in March), whereas sales of alternative fuels such as coal, coke and briquettes plummeted by -46.1%, according to a report of the Colombian statistics office, DANE. One of the main consequences of the latter decline was the loss of importance of the Netherlands as a Colombia's trading partner, since coal sales plummeted 75% compared to March 2023.
PRIMARY GOODS EXPORTS FALL
But the decline in global demand has not only taken its toll on Colombian fuels, but also on food. The category of agricultural products, food and beverages accumulated external sales of US$ 924.2 million FOB, but at the same time, declining 6.2%, compared to March 2023. Within the sector, foreign sales of unroasted coffee (-18.8%) and palm oil (-26.2%) fell the most.
Although the United States kept its role as Colombia's main trading partner, María Claudia Lacouture, president of the Colombian American Chamber (AmCham), maintained a negative view after the resulta of March and the preceding months. In fact, Colombia's non-mining-energy exports to the US fell 1.9% in the first quarter.
News are not better for mining sector, as previously seen. Adding to typical demand swings, there was an overproduction of iron and steel in Australia, which has weakened international prices. “At Amcham we emphasize the importance of diversifying exports and maximizing commercial opportunities, especially in times of economic slowdown,” stated Lacouture.
On the other hand, Peru shows an apparently different story: the local Central Reserve Bank (BCRP) just announced a 3.3% year-on-year increase in traditional exports during the first quarter of the year. As incredible as it may sound, the major contributors to the rise were coffee, copper, gold, as well as oil and its derivatives.
In particular, agricultural exports grew 59.6%; mining companies, 8%; and those selling petroleum products and their derivatives, 2%. It should be noted that if non-traditional exports are added to the general balance, the result is more modest: only 0.9% growth compared to the previous year.
Furthermore, if the month of March is analyzed separately, the Peruvian situation is more similar to that of its northern neighbor. Indeed, exports totaled about US$5.35 billion, showing a year-on-year drop of 8%, according to figures from the export unions Adex and ComexPerú. As in Colombia, those responsible for the lower sales were minerals (-1.6%), hydrocarbons (-20.7%), and fishing (-53.7%) sectors.
It is important to highlight that hydrocarbon and fishing shipments were affected by the reduction in the exported value of liquefied natural gas (-34.7%), as well as the lower volume of fish meal (-56.6%). In contrast, as the figures for the first quarter attest, the agricultural sector, which accumulated external sales of US$ 27.7 million, achieved growth of 42.6%.
CHILE STRENGTHENS TIES WITH THE ASIAN DRAGON
For its part, Chile registered significant growth in service exports during the first quarter. Revenue from that source amounted to US$ 674 million, implying an increase of 42.7% and thus marking the highest figure for this period on record. The Directorate of Studies of the Undersecretary of International Economic Relations (Subrei) reported the positive results last month. It should be noted that among the most exported services included the maintenance and repair of air vehicles, as well as technical support in the computer sector.
Likewise, this period was characterized by a consolidation of the commercial relationship between Chile and China, as the Asian dragon positioned itself as the main destination for Chilean exports other than copper and lithium. A cumulative total of US$3.62 billion was posted in the perios, 8.4% more than in 2023, according to ProChile. The main products imported by China included cherries, cellulose, iron, fresh plums and iodine.
Other markets where Chilean exports gained prominence in the first quarter were Switzerland and India. In the European country, notable growth was registered on the back of large shipments of gold manufactures (+61.2%) and services (+122.5%), as well as bottled red wine or blends (+ 73.2%).
Shipments of molybdenum (+ 32.5%) and iodine (+ 155%) to China generated US$ 157 million revenue, representing an increase of + 40.5%, compared to the first quarter of 2023. Likewise, the United Kingdom made presence with the import of fresh blueberries (+ 19.5%), services (+ 48.7%) and bulk red wine (+ 49.3%). These are products that contributed to a total export revenue of US$ 1.97 billion, signaling year-on-year growth of 21.2%.
MEXICO KEEPS THE US AS MAIN TRADE PARTNER
Mexico broke a streak of almost a year of increases in exports to the United States. Falling consumption in the superpower largely determined that shipments from its southern neighbor fell by 2.9% in March, to US$41.56 billion, according to data from the US Census Bureau.
In contrast, a 12.8% exports increase was posted in February 2024. In the first quarter as a whole, Mexican shipments to the US grew 3.8%, to US$ 115.49 billion.
Despite the setback in March, everything seems to indicate that geographical proximity and historical ties maintain their weight in Mexico's foreign trade. The US remains the main trading partner of the Aztec country. It has a 15.8% share in the Mexican market, followed closely by Canada (14.8%) and China (10.7%).
In this regard, the financial group Banco Base analyzed the scenarios that could favor the recovery of shipments abroad between Mexico and its traditional partner.
“The growth of exports can accelerate again, but for this, it is necessary for manufacturing production in Mexico to grow sustainably, recovering from the stagnation observed in the first months of the year, and for consumption to accelerate in the United States, mainly of goods, something that is not ruled out towards the second half of the year due to the electoral process in that country,” the bank stated in a report. It is not ruled out that US economic growth, projected at 2.2% this year, could favor Mexican exports due to the boost in the consumption of goods expected during the second half of this year.
