La semana del 8 de marzo de 2022, los precios del petróleo (Brent) se dispararon cuando EE. UU. anunció la prohibición de las importaciones de petróleo y otras fuentes de energía rusas en represalia por la invasión de Ucrania. El Brent que ya venía en alza desde hace 12 meses superó los US$138 por barril al alcanzar su máximo histórico en los últimos 10 años.

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pin_description="" dam="0" site_id=20917490 caption="Precio del petr\u00f3leo de las materias primas/ An\u00e1lisis Consultor" original_size="850x408" photo_credit="Fuente: Market Business Insider" alt="Cuadro sobre el precio del petr\\u00f3leo brent" expand=1] Precio del petróleo de las materias primas/ Análisis ConsultorFuente: Market Business Insider

Igualmente, existe una alta correlación entre los precios del petróleo y el combustible para aviones en US$ por barril mientras que el diferencial de precios entre ambos productos previo a la pandemia promedió 20 %.

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pin_description="" dam="0" site_id=20917490 caption="Evoluci\u00f3n de los precios del petr\u00f3leo Brent y el combustible de aviaci\u00f3n/ An\u00e1lisis consultor" original_size="893x563" photo_credit="Fuente:\u00a0Platts, DataStream y S&P Global Commodity Insight" expand=1] Evolución de los precios del petróleo Brent y el combustible de aviación/ Análisis consultorFuente: Platts, DataStream y S&P Global Commodity Insight

PERSPECTIVAS DE LOS PRECIOS DEL PETRÓLEO EN 2022

Según S&P Global Commodity Insight, los precios mundiales del combustible de aviación alcanzaron US$ 152 por barril (o US$ 3,6 por galón) el 7 de marzo de 2022 a las 6 p. m. EST, mostrando un índice del 417% (valor del índice 2000 = 100). La región más afectada en términos de precios por barril de combustible para aviones es Europa (US$ 3,8 p./gal, índice de 428%) seguida de América Latina (US$ 3,6 p./gal, índice de 424%) y Estados Unidos (US$ 3,6 p./gal, índice del 400%).

Pronosticar los precios del crudo en tiempos normales es una tarea difícil, ya que los inventarios, la oferta y la demanda, además de otras variables "externas" y muchas veces incontrolables, como los conflictos bélicos, son difíciles de predecir.

Hoy, observo más de 20 variables y muchas escenarios de "qué pasaría si" que deben ser considerados para pronosticar los precios del crudo. Por ejemplo, la duración del embargo de petróleo y gas por parte de Estados Unidos y sus aliados. Además, posibles acuerdos entre los productores de petróleo y naciones bajo sanciones (caso Estados Unidos y Venezuela). Por otro lado, la duración del conflicto ruso-ucraniano, adicionales sanciones a Rusia a futuro y posibles incentivos del gobierno Americano a operadores fracking.

Además, la inestabilidad política en un número de países exportadores de petróleo, el actual estado de la producción diaria de petróleo y si se puede (o no) aumentar rápidamente la producción petrolera.

Del mismo modo, la OPEP y los exportadores alineados no-OPEP. Sobre todo, cómo reaccionarán a los aumentos de la producción o si acuerdan mantener una producción que mantenga alto los precio del petróleo entre otras variables observadas.

Por lo tanto, pronosticar los precios del combustible de aviación semana a semana ya es una tarea abrumadora estos días mucho más aún es tratar de pronosticar a 30 y 90 días. Después de considerar una serie de escenarios y un factor de riesgo de "guerra", en mi opinión, los siguientes escenarios son posibles en el 2022 tomando como escenario base US$ 151 por barril (o US$ 3,6 por galón).

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pin_description="" dam="0" site_id=20917490 caption="Investigaci\u00f3n de materias primas. An\u00e1lisis de Consultor" original_size="870x592" photo_credit="Fuente: Market Business Insider / S&P Global Insight" alt="Investigaci\\u00f3n de materias primas. An\\u00e1lisis de Consultor" expand=1] Investigación de materias primas. Análisis de ConsultorFuente: Market Business Insider / S&P Global Insight

El escenario bajo pronostica precios promedio de combustible de aviación de US$ 158 p./bbl. (US$ 3,8 p./gal) en el segundo trimestre de 2022, mientras que el escenario conservador estima US$ 168 p./bbl. (US$ 4,0 p./gal) y el escenario alto pronostica US$ 180 p./bbl. (US$ 4,3 p./gal.).

Para el tercer trimestre, se pronostican precios promedio del combustible de aviación para los escenarios bajo, conservador y alto de US$ 165 p./bbl. (US$ 3,9p./gal), US$193 p./bbl. (US$ 4,6 p./gal.) y US$ 225 p./bbl. (US$ 5,4 p./gal.).

ESTRATEGIAS PARA CONTENER LA VOLATILIDAD DEL PRECIO DEL COMBUSTIBLE PARA AVIONES

En promedio, los costos de combustible representan entre el 28% y 38% del gasto anual total para las aerolíneas. Además, la rentabilidad de la industria aérea está estrechamente relacionada con los precios del combustible de aviación y su volatilidad.

Con el fin de mitigar la volatilidad de los precios del combustible para aviones a corto y mediano plazo y, al mismo tiempo, proteger la liquidez y el resultado neto, las aerolíneas pueden utilizar swaps, futuros y coberturas de combustible de manera proactiva para cubrir sus necesidades de combustible de tres a 18 meses. No tener un seguro de combustible vigente en este momento significa que será costoso tener uno en el futuro y posiblemente ya sea tarde.

Otras medidas incluyen el uso de software para la planificación de rutas y datos históricos para analizar y planificar operaciones eficientes de consumo de combustible (ascenso, en ruta y descensos). Igualmente, se deben tratar de operar aeronaves de última generación y motores de bajo consumo de combustible e implementar iniciativas que analicen cuidadosamente el peso de los componentes en el avión con la finalidad de reducirlos (por ejemplo, el uso de materiales compuestos). Igualmente, se deben utilizar estrategias de control de peso de todos y cada uno de los productos ofrecidos a bordo incluyendo los asientos.

Además, se podría aumentar las tarifas y aplicar un recargo por combustible. En términos de la actual demanda que todavía necesita ser estimulada para alcanzar niveles pre-pandemia, la pregunta es cómo la demanda y la competencia pueden responder a los recargos por combustible y qué porcentaje se puede pasar a los clientes a través de aumentos de tarifas sin desincentivar la demanda. Más aún, qué porcentaje puede ser absorbida por las aerolíneas, por ejemplo en los mercados donde exista una alta penetración de las aerolíneas de bajo costo.

Además, otras estrategias incluyen el rediseño de la red de rutas y los horarios, recortes de capacidad y la optimización de los factores de ocupación. Igualmente, se deben evaluar jubilaciones anticipadas, las licencias temporales y las alianzas comerciales de baja inversión de capital así como la simplificación de la flota. Adicionalmente, se debe buscar maximizar los ingresos por pasajero más allá de la cadena de viajes, usar tácticas de subcontratación de personal para reducir los costos de nómina y beneficios y usar la tecnología para optimizar el número de empleados por avión.

De igual manera, considerar la venta de activos, incluyendo aeronaves si fuese necesario y otros activos así como renegociar acuerdos power-by-the-hour y buscar nuevas fuentes de financiamiento para proteger la liquidez.

Finalmente, los pasajeros se encontrarán en un nuevo ambiento: Precios más altos y menor cantidad de boletos con descuento. Con los precios del petróleo alcanzando niveles históricos, la rentabilidad de las aerolíneas está más que nunca bajo presión y la alta gerencia debe planificar cuidadosamente cómo abordar el nuevo desafío de operar con costos unitarios mucho más altos.